Thursday, 21st July 2016
Good afternoon, contrarians,
On the menu today….
The mind boggles this morning….
David Stevens of Coral reports that his firm struck plenty of bets at odds-on prices about Postponed for this Saturday’s King George at Ascot. And that they were doing so as early as last weekend….
The money continued to flow in during the early part of this week. So much so Roger Varian’s charge was cut from 4/6 to 1/2….
You wonder what manner of punter would be sitting at home a week before the race thinking about betting Postponed at those sorts of prices. Perhaps they had forgotten to take their medication….
For sure Postponed was the standout candidate amongst those horses slated to run. I understand that. Maybe the punters wading into the odds-on water thought of the 4/6 as value?
Maybe they are graduates of the Harry Findlay school of betting – which says (or said before he bombed out) that real value is found in the short prices and that when you can get 1/2 about something that should be 1/4, that’s the time to wade in and go lumpy?
Maybe they were frightened to death of missing the best price. Maybe they thought that by going to the orchard early they would get to snaffle all the low-hanging fruit while nobody else was looking.
Who knows what they were thinking? I can understand why a punter would want to take steps to get on what he considers a cert at a price he considers value. But 4/6 and 1/2 a full week ahead of a horse race? Really?
Punters taking those kinds of bets probably deserve to get their backsides smacked until they are red raw. And, as is often the case with horses and racing, that’s exactly what happened.
Postponed was pulled out of the race yesterday because he has a respiratory infection. The layers get to keep all the ante-post stakes put down on the 5yo. The punters don’t even get a poor run for their money. The layers made money this week the easiest way there is. Job done.
When you pay your money, you take your chances. Punters know that when they go in – but it doesn’t stop them bucking and kicking when the deal turns sour.
The punter betting with the firms has to grin and bear it in the end. There is no other way. He is like the man stuck down the well – nobody hears his cries.
Your average exchange punter is another animal altogether. He sees things on the exchange platform that the punter betting with a traditional bookmaker never sees. And some of what he sees enrages him.
To a punter information is a lot like food. And some people are further up the food-chain than others….
Before Postponed was officially withdrawn from the race and the wider public informed of his absence, an in-the-know individual (or individuals) was at work on Betfair – laying all the bets on order at prices up to 101/1.
That’s one of the advantages you get on the exchanges. You don’t have to accept the price on offer. You can ask for the price you want. So if Postponed is trading at 1/2 and you want even money, you can put up an order, take your chances and see if somebody is prepared to lay that price.
But it can go wrong. Your order is sitting there waiting to be matched come what may.
If something goes wrong with a horse that is not yet common knowledge, there is always the risk that someone in-the-know will lay your bet at whatever price – knowing full well that the horse is out of the race and that he’ll get to keep your stake without the horse even going to the track….
Is it right? Is it wrong? I don’t know. It is as it is – and you could make a case either way. But last night there were punters on the Betfair forum calling for a return of capital punishment.
The forum is where Betfair users of all type and variety meet to – among other things – point fingers and publish their private anguish. Last night there was much shaking of fist and much gnashing of teeth.
One user called for Betfair to launch an investigation, identify the punter/s laying Postponed all the way up the price scale and to get the law enforcement authorities involved….
Other were of similar mind – referring to what went on as illegal ‘insider trading’….
Many feel that in-the-know punters capitalizing on restricted knowledge should be banned from betting….
But where does it stop? Should owners be allowed to bet – as they do at the moment?
Surely they know a bit more about their horses than the average day-punter. Is their betting activity akin to insider trading?
And what about the bookies – the biggest insider traders of them all? All sorts of people with insider knowledge of one sort or another have betting accounts with all the firms.
Doesn’t that represent a privileged position on the information chain? Isn’t the information garnered from the betting activities of those clients something the bookie can learn from – something that enables him to restrict liabilities by cutting prices as and when appropriate?
I am no-one to throw stones either. I have occupied the glass house.
There are times in the dim and distant past when I laid a horse for a big race – knowing it had broken down on the gallops.
I have backed horses in big races based on knowing the firm I worked for had laid decent bets at big prices to clued-up connections.
The bottom line is that knowledge is power. And that power – like everything else – will find expression in the market place. That’s reality. People who know things are always going to seek out advantage over those that don’t.
When all is said and done, the drifting price about Postponed on the exchanges told its own story to those who were watching. The punters that got stung were those who left unattended orders in the market.
Maybe those punters only have themselves to blame and need to learn a lesson from this scenario (which is hardly unprecedented): when you leave orders up on the exchange unattended you are largely a hostage to fortune.
In your absence events can conspire against you – leaving you powerless to react when others seek to take advantage. In short you are at risk of getting your trousers pulled down and your pockets emptied.
Maybe take your orders down if you aren’t on the exchange to monitor changing circumstances? It would save you a lot of heartache….
That’s all from me for today. Stay tuned for more contrarian big-race insight & analysis tomorrow.
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