Two plums for tomorrow's Classic Chase...

Last Updated: 15.01.2016

15th January 2016

Good afternoon, friends,

In today’s Juicy Plums bulletin….

  • Hitting the ground running in 2016….
  • This week’s target race….
  • Classic Chase – field-splitters & angles of attack….
  • Exciting developments for value hunters….
  • This week’s Juicy Plum selections….

Hitting the ground running in 2016….

Yala Enki got our New Year off to a half-decent start in the Lanzarote Hurdle at Kempton. He justified our faith that his price on Friday represented value – winning in decent fashion having been gifted an easy lead at the start.

I’m not going to complain about that – or devalue the result on the basis of it. I take all the bad luck we endure, and all the near misses, squarely on the chin. When we get the luck rolling our way, I’m just going to accept it with equal dispassion.

I’d be interested to know what price you got. Early-birds who follow our Facebook page had a very good chance of getting the 7s on Friday afternoon. But the price soon contracted following the withdrawal of Unowhatimeanharry.

By the time they went to post on Saturday Yala Enki was trading as the 11/4 favourite – half the price and less than we’d originally advised him at.

It wasn’t an ideal Juicy Plum race – cutting up to just 9 runners – but we did the best we could with it and the one we plucked from the tree finished ahead of the rest. So we hope you were on. We’d just like to know at what price. If you have a moment then please drop me a line….

Get in touch with your Yala Enki price right here….

This week’s target race….

This weekend our target race is theClassic Chase. This is a Grade 3 event for horses aged 5yo+. It is contested over 3 miles and 5 furlongs at Warwick tomorrow afternoon at 3.35. You can watch the race live on C4 and RUK.

A field of 15 runners goes to post on ground currently described as heavy. It’s going to be a slog.

Alan King’s Sego Success heads the weights on his official mark of 146. At the other end of the scale Russe Blanc, Foxbridge&De Kerry Manare out of the handicap. The latter carries 10-05 off his mark of 125.

Four last-time-out winners line up. Ten of the runners wear headgear of one sort or another. Five runners carry claimers – Tom Humphries takes 10lb off Pete The Feat.

Field-splitters and angles of attack….

Some key statistical pointers help split the field and provide a route into the race….

  • All of the last 10 winners had run in no more than 16 chases
  • 8 had won no more than 2 chases
  • 9 finished in the first 3 last time out
  • 9 had won no more than single handicap race over fences
  • 7 of the last 8 winners were officially rated 133+
  • 9 had registered a career-best Racing Post rating over fences of 140+ (7 had scored 140+ in one of last 3 chases contested)
  • Paul Nicholls’s last 9 participants produced 3 winners
  • Alan King has saddled 2 winners and 2 placers from his last 8 runners

If you like to find your own bets then those statistical pointers should help identify horses of interest….
 

Exciting developments for value hunters….

For the last few months I’ve been working on a special project with my publisher and his team....

In the next few weeks I’m going to be releasing new tools and unique data into the public domain...

Tools and data that will help any punter isolate value-bets in the big races....

I can't say more at this moment in time. But you can get the detail as soon as I release it by signing up to our free Early Doors Preview list….

Get on the inside line right here….

This week’s Juicy Plum selections….

FOXBRIDGE looks nicely priced at 14s. Nigel Twiston Davies’s charge certainly won’t mind the ground – he’s 3 from 3 in heavy conditions – and given how well he stayed in last season’s Midlands Grand National at Uttoxeter, I expect him to relish tomorrow’s stamina-sapping trip.

The 10yo has put in two decent runs this term on ground that would have been livelier than ideal and on a handy mark of just 126, with 5lb claimer Jamie Bargary onboard, I would also expect him to overcome the fact that he is a few pounds out of the handicap.

Mountainous recently won the Welsh Grand National for the in-form Kerry Lee and at prices up to 25s her RUSSE BLANC is well worth each-way support. 

The ground will suit and whilst the trip is an unknown, an entry in this season’sWelsh Grand Nationaland previous aspirational talk aboutraces such as the Irish Grand National and the bet365 Gold Cup, speak of a strong belief amongst connections that a trip some way beyond 3 miles will very much suit. 

The last time out performance could be perceived as a worry but the horse reportedly had excuses that day and the time before at Newbury was a decent-enough effort. Improvement will be required but the extended trip could eek that out of the pure white gelding and, with the yard flying high and full of confidence, the price should be taken.
 

How I’ll be playing….

We don’t have to be betting in hundreds to make the game worthwhile or fun. A £10.00 spend is plenty to be going on with. I’ll be investing as follows:

  • FOXBRIDGE £5.00 win @ 14s (Generally)
  • RUSSE BLANC £5.00 win @ 25s (Coral) & 20s (Generally) 

Note: The firms are paying out 1/4 the odds on the first 3 places and I wouldn’t put you off backing either horse each-way if that’s the way you like to play the Juicy Plum selections….

That’s all from me this week. Enjoy your weekend.

Until next time, be lucky.

Nick

Juicy Plums