5th February 2016
Good afternoon, friends,
In today’s Juicy Plums bulletin….
No really big handicap for us to target this weekend. The best we have to shoot at is the Heroes Handicap Hurdle. This is a Grade 3 event for horses aged 4yo+. It is contested over a trip just shy of 3 miles at Sandown tomorrow afternoon at 3.00. You can watch the race live on C4 and RUK.
A field of 11 runners goes to post on ground currently described as soft. Before we get into my take on where the value is in the market, let’s have a quick spin through the key pointers and splitters….
Some key statistical pointers help split the field and provide a route into the race….
If you like to find your own bets then those statistical pointers should help identify horses of interest….
SADDLERS ENCORE had been off the track for 620 days prior to running at Wincanton just after Christmas. He put in a very promising effort that day but tired towards the end of the race. Even so, he wasn’t beaten far and is entitled to come on plenty for that return effort – one he’s been given good time to recover from.
The ground is a bit of a worry. He’s been pulled up and beaten on bad ground before but it was pretty testing at Wincanton for his comeback race and he had every chance 2 out – doing enough to suggest that would have figured had he been a bit fitter. I’m prepared to take the chance.
The 7yo son of Presenting is the most unexposed horse in tomorrow’s contest and his mark of 129 might well underrate him. Prior to his long layoff he’s won his last two races over fences – beating Southfield Vicat level weights (who subsequently proved good enough to be rated 149 over hurdles before being sent chasing) in one novice contest.
That’s old form now for sure but connections have kept the faith and his return effort suggested he is likely to go beyond 129. If that’s the case, as I believe it is, then he can figure tomorrow. At the 8s with Betfair Sportsbook, he’s a fair bet.
With just 11 runners going to post the general place terms of 1/5 1-2-3 are not particularly attractive and I’ll be going two to win against the field….
JOIN THE CLAN is my other pick. He’s just 3lbs higher in the weights than he was this time last year when winning a handicap at Wetherby. He subsequently finished 8th in the Pertemps Final at the Festival and was 7th in a Grade 3 handicap at Aintree’s Grand National meeting.
This term he hasn’t exactly hit the heights. Last time out he appeared over fences at an inadequate trip and, whilst he wasn’t disgraced finishing last of 3 on what was his chasing debut, he’s back over hurdles tomorrow.
If he can recapture last year’s form on his favoured soft ground then he can outrun general quotes of 16s with Paddy Power and William Hill.
How I’ll be playing….
We don’t have to be betting in hundreds to make the game worthwhile or fun. A spend of a few quid is plenty to be going on with. I’ll be investing as follows:
That’s all from me this week. Enjoy your weekend.
Until next time, be lucky.