The pick of the prices in the Swinton....

Last Updated: 06.05.2016

6th May 2016

Good afternoon, friends,

In today’s ATC Extra bulletin….

  • Heading North and a change of codes….
  • In case you missed it….
  • This week’s ATC Extra selections….

Heading North and a change of codes….

We head to Haydock Park and turn the focus back on the jumps game this weekend in ATC Extra….

Our target race is the Swinton Hurdle. This is a Class 1 Grade 3 event for horses aged 4yo+. The race is contested over the 2-mile trip at tomorrow afternoon at 2.15.

A field of 17 runners head to post on ground described this afternoon as good.

We’ll get to this week’s selections in a moment. First, a few words on the stance I’m taking at Ascot tomorrow afternoon….

Get hold of this weekend’s Ascot advice….

Over on my paid Against the Crowd service this afternoon I’ve highlighted my contrarian selections for the Victoria Cup at Ascot….

  • With 29-runners going to post for the 7f dash up the Ascot straight I can’t see any mileage in backing anything at a single-figure price….
  • I’m staying away from the horses officially rated 100+. It’s paid punters to look further down the handicap over the last 15 years….
  • One horse in tomorrow’s field has got a cracking opportunity at the weights. He’s in-form, he’ll get the fast-pace he needs – and he can be backed at an attractive price….
  • My other pick makes his seasonal debut. I’m not worried though – he goes well fresh. He’s unexposed at the trip and progressive. I expect a big run at a big price….

If you’re looking for a couple more bets for tomorrow afternoon you can access those picks free of charge right now by taking a FREE test-drive of my Against the Crowd service….

Get my picks for Saturday’s Victoria Cup at Ascot

 

This week’s ATC Extra selections….

I like to have a good look at a race before I first look at the prices. I like to take a view without being influenced by market sentiment.

Looking at the entries for tomorrow’s race earlier in the week, I must admit that I was very much drawn to the chance of Philip Hobbs’s Wait For Me – 4th in the County Hurdle at the Cheltenham Festival last time out and clearly a horse who looks set to progress on better ground than he got over the winter….

Sometimes you look at a horse, like what you see, but just know you’re not going to get the price you’re looking for. So it proved. The layers have made assessments similar to my own and the best price you can get this afternoon is 7s.

That’s too short for the objectives of this column. We’re all about getting horse at the wrong price. Preferably a big price. I have to leave the Hobbs horse alone. You can check out our contrarian philosophy here….

ALL SET TO GO looks all set to go well tomorrow at a handy 10s.

He’s really taken to decent ground over the last couple of months – landing a couple of novice handicaps at Taunton and doing his bit to get Paul Nicholls over the line in the Trainers Championship.

The form of the first one of those Taunton novice events is working out quite nicely. The horse he beat into 2nd that day, Banyu, is now rated 141 over hurdles and was 92 on the flat. All Set To Go runs off 136 tomorrow and was as high as 105 on the turf.

He should be very competitive, there’s clearly plenty of scope for additional progression, he gets his ground and his yard remains in decent fettle. There’s a lot to like at a double-figure price.

I’ll also be going with JOHN CONSTABLE at an attractive 14s.

His trainer Evan Williams is pretty clued-up about the type of horse required to win this particular race – his last 9 participants produced 2 wins and 2 additional placed finishes.

And connections have been patient with this horse. They haven’t wanted to bottom him out on ground too soft. They’ve been willing to keep their powder dry and to wait for the right opportunities to present themselves.

Back in November on his first start of the season – and on just his third go over timber – the 5yo finished 2nd behind Sternrubin at Newbury.

That was a performance loaded with promise. And it is worth noting that Sternrubin went on to win the Ladbroke Hurdle at Ascot next time out – earning his current official rating of 142.

John Constable disappointed at Cheltenham off another long break. But last time at Ayr – in the Scottish Champion Hurdle – though he was beaten again – he put in a much better performance. Down in class today he can out-punch his price.

How I’ll be playing….

Remember, we don’t have to be betting in hundreds to make the game worthwhile or fun. A spend of a few quid is plenty to be going on with….

  • ALL SET TO GO @ 10s (Generally)
  • JOHN CONSTABLE @ 14s (Generally) 

Note: The bookies are up with place terms of 1/4 1-2-3-4. Don’t let me put you off backing each-way if that’s the way you like to play.

 

That’s all from me this week. Enjoy your weekend.

Until next time, be lucky.

Nick Pullen

Against the Crowd Extra