Friday, 15th July 2016
Good afternoon, contrarians,
On the menu today….
Newbury plays host to the Weatherbys Super Sprint (4.10) tomorrow afternoon – a valuable dash over the 5f trip for the fleet-footed juveniles….
A field of 25 runners goes to post on ground currently described as good to firm and the one I like at the prices is one that will appreciate those underfoot conditions – Eve Johnston Houghton’s SUPER JULIUS at a general 16s.
I really liked the way he picked up and won at Chester in June – a performance that suggested the penny has dropped with this son of Group-winning sprinter, Bated Breath.
For sure he had the best of the draw that afternoon – he was berthed in stall 1 on the inside – but even with that advantage taken into account, a 3.25 length win in a 5f event tells you this horse has some zip. He fairly skipped away from the opposition inside the last furlong.
This race has been his target since then and whilst his trainer has not yet managed to win this contest, she has tried and has sent a couple over the last few years that have performed well.
Her Orders From Rome ran 6th in 2011 whilst Alutiq ran 5th in 2013. She’s been close enough to suggest she knows what type of juvenile comes here with a chance of going well.
The underfoot conditions should suit. That Chester race was run on decent ground. And with stall 2 to run from and natural speed in hand, Shane Kelly will have the option of grabbing the rail if he so desires.
Six of the last 13 renewals were won by a horse drawn no more than one stall away from either the nearside or far-side rail. A rail helps a fast horse stay straight and can be considered an aide or an advantage for inexperienced horses in races of this nature.
Luck in running will no doubt play a hand in the outcome and there are plenty with chances here. The market and the layers have found quite a few of those and they are up towards the top of the betting. At the prices I think Super Julius is slightly overlooked and he’s the each-way pick.
A little earlier on the Newbury card they go to post in the G3 Hackwood Stakes (3.35) over the 6f trip….
It is often good policy to stick with an in-form filly and on that basis Clive Cox’s PRICELESS seems underestimated at 33s.
She ran a cracker in the big handicap sprint for 3yos last week at Newmarket and was only beaten home by the winner, Dancing Star.
She was sent off at 25s and, having looked a little out-of-sorts in her previous two races at Ascot and Haydock, her excellent effort was seen as something of a surprise.
The ground appears to have played a big part. At Ascot and Haydock it had been on the softer side. Last week at Newmarket it was quick – and first time up on that kind of fast strip, she proved a different proposition.
Quick conditions prevail again tomorrow at Newbury, she remains unexposed on a fast surface, and if she’s come out of last week’s race okay, she can run another big one – bigger than her official rating and her price suggest.
The Contrarian Bet Box….
To recap on where my contrarian money will be going tomorrow afternoon….
In the Weatherbys Super Sprint (4.10 Newbury)....
In the Hackwood Stakes (3.35 Newbury)....
That is my take on where the value lies – but you will no doubt have your own ideas and that’s exactly as it should be.
That’s all from me for now. I’ll be back in your inbox a little later today with ATC Extra. Stay tuned.