Wednesday, 27th July 2016
Good afternoon, contrarians,
On the menu today….
Thursday at Glorious Goodwood means it is Goodwood Cup (3.10) day. They have been running a version of this G2 race since way back in 1808 – and a big field of 15 runners goes to post this time round.
The one I like at the prices is the Willie-Mullins-trained WICKLOW BRAVE at 14s.
The 7-year-old is a classy performer – not least over hurdles He won the 2015 edition of the County Hurdle at the Cheltenham Festival.
But he has some smart form on the flat too – 2nd in the 2015 Ebor at York off a mark of 102, 3rd in last season’s Irish St Leger and 3rd (not beaten far) in the Long Distance Cup run at Ascot on Champions day at the back end of last season.
He’s not yet managed to win a big one on the flat for his yard. But he has the stamp of a horse who can and will when things fall right. And tomorrow could be the day.
He ran a very nice race at Chester first-time-out this season – finishing just 0.25 lengths behind Dartmouth. Next time out that one won the G2 Hardwicke Stakes at the Royal Ascot meeting. Wicklow Brave was in that race too – but got well beaten.
I’m not too concerned about that though. The 12f trip would be on the short side for an out-and-out stayer at 2 miles and tomorrow’s test will be right up his street.
I would have expected Ryan Moore to be onboard. But Andrea Atzeni is the man booked to ride. Moore is without a ride in the race. That’s interesting to me. I have no explanation for that. And maybe there doesn’t need to be one.
Atzeni is hardly a negative after all. Moore is, of course, the best rider on the block. But around Goodwood’s twists and turns, Atzeni is one of the better exponents. He’s an interesting booking.
Wicklow Brave likes a good-size field, the ground won’t trouble him and, if he takes to the idiosyncratic track, I can see him running a big race for connections at the price….
The Contrarian Bet Box….
To recap on where my contrarian money will be going tomorrow afternoon….
In the Goodwood Cup (3.10 Goodwood)....
That is my take on where the value lies – but you will no doubt have your own ideas and that’s exactly as it should be.
That’s all from me for today. I’ll be back tomorrow with my pick of the prices for the action on Friday (Day 4)….