12th August 2016
Good afternoon, friends,
In today’s ATC Extra bulletin….
We’re targeting the prices in the C J Murfitt Ltd Handicap (3.20) tomorrow. It’s a class 2 handicap over the straight 6f trip on the July course. But first, an insight into a twisted betting mind….
There is more to life than racing. Football, for instance. And tomorrow we get back to the Premier League.
I’m a Stoke City fan and I’m hoping the club’s patient approach to signing West Brom’s Saido Berahino bears fruit over the next week or so. A goalscorer is what we need to take the next step and challenge for European qualification rather than mid-table honours.
But whether we get the West Brom man or not, it hasn’t stopped me backing Stoke to be relegated at 11.0 on Betfair.
If that seems like gross disloyalty, I take the point. But that’s the way I roll. Not because I think Stoke will get relegated, but because if the worst-case-scenario does materialize in May, I want a little something out of the catastrophe to help mitigate the misery.
It’s a bet I hope not to collect on. It’s a bit like an offering to the betting Gods. I don’t mind watching the stake go up in smoke if it means the Gods smile on Stoke and we stay up.
It’s become something of a superstition in recent years. And it’s been win-win all the way – given that Stoke haven’t been relegated and I haven’t lost a single penny piece.
Each season I’ve taken a price about Stoke getting relegated and each season I’ve been able to lay the bet back on the exchange at a shorter price and protect my stakes whilst maintaining a winning position – albeit a smaller one.
Last season I was in and out within six games – such was Stoke’s poor start to the campaign.
With Stoke’s first 7 fixtures including games at home against Manchester City and Spurs as well as away assignments at Everton and Manchester United, it is entirely possible Stoke will be coming from off the pace again this time round. And, if so, I’ll be quick to lay my bet off at shorter odds on Betfair.
That’s the only football bet I’ve had to date. I’d normally be loaded up with ante-post positions by now – but I’ve not enjoyed much success betting that way. This time round I’m doing something different with the football.
This year I’m doing the pools for the first time ever (I live for kicks) – basing perms on selections I get from an Under/Over analysis tool I’ve been tinkering with and getting good results from for a couple of years. Nothing ventured, nothing gained….
And in individual matches I’ll be focusing on backing specific players to score anytime at big prices – a method that has delivered solid payouts for a couple of seasons now. Certain players are well over-priced and the market only seems to latch on after the event. That’s perfect for me….
As usual I’ll also be playing the Super 6 with Skybet. Every week you get a chance to win £250,000 predicting six scorelines – and it’s free to play.
You need a Skybet account to login – but you don’t have to bet with them if you don’t want to. It’s a free shot to nothing. No account? Sign up for one here.
Bring it on….
A big week of value betting ahead….
Over on my paid Against the Crowd service this week we’ll be heading to York for the Ebor meeting that begins on Wednesday….
We’ll be looking to play up the profits we banked down at Glorious Goodwood last month….
We’ll be targeting all the big betting heats across the 4-day meeting – and looking to find a couple more winners at value prices….
We warm up for that assignment this weekend with bets in tomorrow’s showpiece at Ripon – the Great St Wilfrid…. I’m two-against-the-field at nice prices….
You can get those Ripon bets right now – and get onboard for York – completely free of charge by taking a FREE test-drive of my Against the Crowd service….
Kevin’s Ryan’s last three runners in this race produced two wins and Mont Kiara is most certainly in with a chance of making it a hat-trick for Ryan tomorrow afternoon.
The bugbear for me with him is the price. I suspect many readers would be perfectly happy with the 13/2 William Hill have him in at right now. But the focus of this column is bets at prices that under-value the horse concerned.
And the one that leaps out at me is Andrew Balding’s SUMMER CHORUS at 16s. That’s a nice each-way price about an improving filly running for a yard going well right now.
She ran out of steam in the last 50 yards at Brighton last time and might have paid the price for being a bit fizzy – something she’s prone to. But her performance rated a career-best and she’s remains a lightly-race horse going very much the right way. She will certainly be stripping fitter for racing.
She gets to carry a featherweight of 8-00 tomorrow and Jimmy Quinn comes in for the ride – replacing David Probert who can’t boil down that far.
This is a step-up in class and prize money. That presents the challenge and helps create the price. But she’s improving all the time and if she continues on her upward trajectory she can prove good enough to figure here. I’ll be backing her each-way.
The ATC Extra bet recap….
Remember, we don’t have to be betting in hundreds to make the game worthwhile or fun. A spend of a few quid is plenty to be going on with….
In the 3.20 at Newmarket tomorrow….
That’s all from me this week. Enjoy your weekend.