My contrarian plays on day 2 at York....

Last Updated: 17.08.2016

Wednesday, 17th August 2016

Good afternoon, contrarians,

On the menu today….

  • Two-against-the-field in the Clipper (3.05)….
  • Take the Queen on Trust in the Oaks (3.40)….

Two-against-the-field in the Clipper….

The Clipper Logistics Stakes (3.05) is the big betting heat on day 2 of the Ebor meeting at York. It’s a handicap event over the left-handed mile for horses aged 3yo+ and 20 runners head to post for this season’s edition of the race.

I backed ONE WORD MORE at Goodwood in the Betfred Mile. The horse came in 7th that day and whilst I was disappointed with the outcome I wasn’t disappointed in the horse.

He had no luck that day. He was full of running under David Allan but he was checked multiple times, he couldn’t get a clear run and the gaps didn’t open for him until it was too late.

He finished off like a horse with plenty in the tank. It just didn’t pan out for him on the South Downs. Under different circumstances I think he could certainly have hit the frame.

What his run told me is that a mark off 99 is not beyond Tim Easterby’s charge and, the way he’s been running of late, he could well gain his compensation tomorrow.

He’s a fair bet at 10s at a track where he’s run with credit multiple times in big handicap fields. The ground will suit and in trap 7 he’s not berthed badly.

Note: At the price I’ll be going in win only on One Word More. But don’t let me put you off backing the horse each-way if that is your preference.

The prices isn’t right for an each way bet on One Word More for me. But I will be backing another horse in the race – and going in each-way on that one….
                                      
The first time visor worked the magic for LAT HAWILL last time out at Haydock.

Whether or not it will have quite the same effect second time round remains to be seen. But at a general 16s I think Keith Dalgleish’s charge has been slightly overlooked.

A last time out career-best, the fast ground and the visor all count as ticked boxes. So too does Philip Makin in the saddle.

He’s produced a half-decent tune on the horse 3 times this term. For sure, in between times the horse has produced clunkers, but last time suggested a corner has been turned. 

Once upon a time this horse ran in a G1 at the Arc meeting. That was probably a reach. But he was rated as high as 102. He’s now back up to 98 and if Dalgleish – who has only had the horse in his charge since the end of April – has found the key then he could be heading that way and beyond again. The 16s is a nice each-way price. 

Take the Queen on Trust in the Oaks….

The G1 Yorkshire Oaks is the feature race on day 2 and Found heads the market at prices 7/4 and 15/8.

Fair enough. She’s a dual G1 winner – winning the Criterium Des Pouliches as a juvenile and the Breeders’ Cup Turf as a 3yo. But she’s managed to find at least one a bit better on 4of the 5 occasions she’s raced this term and I want to take her on at the price.

The one I’ll be doing it with is Sir Michael Stoute’s QUEEN’S TRUST at a general 8s.

For sure, she’s got some to find with the jolly but she is very much going the right way as she showed last time out at Goodwood in the Nassau Stakes.

That race was a bit of a cakewalk for top-quality Minding – rated way better than everything else, and taking on only a single G1 winner having already won 5 at that level herself. She was sent off at 1/5 and duly obliged.

But she only beat Queen’s Trust – rated more than a stone inferior but carrying level weights – 1.25 lengths. That bare form might flatter the Stoute horse a little – but it was a good performance nevertheless.

The daughter of Dansili was the only one to put the winner under any kind of pressure. It was just her 5th appearance on track, there should be more to come and I expect more improvement tomorrow. I think the 8s is a fair enough price.

Note: The place terms are only 1/5 1-2-3. I’ll be sticking to betting the straight win. But if the place terms don’t bother you, don’t let me put you off playing to hit the frame.

The Contrarian Bet Box….

To recap on where my contrarian money will be going on Thursday afternoon….

In the Clipper Logistic Stakes (3.05 York)....

  • Nick’s Contrarian Picks – ONE WORD MORE (10s generally) & LAT HAWILL each-way (16s generally)

Note: At the price I’ll be going in win only on One Word More. But don’t let me put you off backing the horse each-way if that is your preference.

In the Yorkshire Oaks (3.40 York)....

  • Nick’s Contrarian Picks – QUEEN’S TRUST (8s generally)

Note: The place terms in the Yorkshire Oaks are 1/5 1-2-3. I’ll be sticking to betting the straight win. But if the place terms don’t bother you, don’t let me put you off playing to hit the frame. 

That is my take on where the value lies – but you will no doubt have your own ideas and that’s exactly as it should be.

 

That’s all from me for today. I’ll be back tomorrow with my idea of the value on Friday’s card at York. Stay tuned.

Nick Pullen

Against the Crowd