The pick of the prices at York....

Last Updated: 19.08.2016

19th August 2016

Good afternoon, friends,

In today’s ATC Extra bulletin….

  • We don’t complain about winners….
  • Getting the best of the late prices….
  • Value bets in the Ebor and the Gimcrack….
  • The pick of the prices in Jack Berry House Stakes (1.55)….

We don’t complain about winners….

We had a nice winner last week in the shape of Summer Chorus at Newmarket. She needed every inch of the 6f trip – but a win is a win….

We have our share of bad luck – and we don’t complain. So when it goes right and we prevail at the death, we’re not going to whinge about that either.

Advised at 16s, she was sent off at 14s but was available at prices as big as 20s on Saturday morning. We hope you were on and that you got the best of the quotes….

This week we’ll be having a crack at tomorrow’s opener at York, the Jack Berry House Stakes (1.45) – a class 2 handicap over the 10f trip for horses aged 3yo+.

A field of 19 runners go to post and there is value to be had at the prices.

First a few words on getting the best of the prices about your bets….

Getting the best of the late prices….

Regular readers know the drill. This column is about finding the value and betting at prices. And getting the best of the prices is key to success over the long term.

But not all punters want to bet ahead of time. Some like to wait until right before the off.

Personally I like to get on early-doors. I want to beat the market to the punch. That makes sense to me. I want the best of the prices.

But getting on late makes a lot of sense too. It means you get to factor all available information into your betting decision.

If it starts to rain ten minutes before the off, you aren’t caught without an umbrella. If a horse sweats-up or gets loose, you are aware of it before your money is down.

But betting late means you are betting when the bookies are shortening up prices to minimize SPs and extend the over-round. You are betting at a time when the bookmaker is squeezing you.

So if you do bet late in the day, my suggestion is to get yourself a Betfair Exchange account and place your bets at the exchange prices or at Betfair SP.

You’ll be getting better prices about value selections than you will betting at the Industry SP with the bookies....

It won’t make much difference if you like backing fancied horses. Industry SP and Betfair SP are much of a muchness on consensus horses.

But when you bet less fancied horses the disparity in returns offered at Industry SP and Betfair SP are worth thinking about.

Look at the table below. It outlines shows the details of the bigger-priced winners on the first two days at York this week….

Day

Horse

ISP

BSP

Tue

Boom The Groom

12.0

12.0

Tue

Syphax

17.0

26.0

Tue

Oceane

8.0

10.5

Tue

The Wagon Wheel

7.5

8.4

Wed

Stormy Clouds

7.5

7.9

Wed

Queen Kindly

5.5

8.8

Wed

Firmanent

9.0

9.6

Wed

Opal Tiara

9.0

14.3

   

75.5

97.5

The prices are decimal – for ease of comparison – but, that aside, the data speaks out very clearly.

  • In more cases than not Betfair SP beats Industry SP on horses sent off at prices in excess 5.0 (4/1 in fractional odds).
  • And the bottom line difference really adds up. Just the 8 qualifying winners over the first two days at York produce a disparity between ISP and BSP payouts of 22 points.

This is a small sample for sure. But it is replicated day on day at all meetings. This is no anomaly or flash in the pan. BSP consistently out-delivers ISP.

Getting the best price you can get about every bet you place is key to getting the best out of your betting bottom-line over the long-term.

If you don’t have Betfair SP available to you as a betting option, you are denying yourself access to bigger prices than you get with the bookies – especially if you bet late doors. And that makes no sense.

Get the best prices late doors with Betfair SP….

Value bets in the Ebor and the Gimcrack….

Over on my paid Against the Crowd service this afternoon I’ve sought out the value in tomorrow’s Ebor and the Gimcrack Stakes….

  • In the Ebor – the richest flat handicap run in Europe – I reckon the trip on a flat track and ground with cut is ideal for one specific horse trading at a double-figure price.
  • In the Gimcrack I think the market is missing a trick – and I’m siding with a runner it is severely under-estimating…. 

If you’re looking for a couple more bets for tomorrow afternoon you can access those picks free of charge right now by taking a FREE test-drive of my Against the Crowd service….

Access my bets for the Ebor and the Gimcrack right here….

The pick of the prices in the Jack Berry House Stakes….

Some of those that made my shortlist have been found by the market – the likes of Dark Red and Snoano – and are no good for the purposes of this column. Our emphasis is on value prices.

But there is a solid qualifier to be supported. Richard Fahey’s IMSHIVALLA is a nice each-way price at 20s for this.

She’s been around the block and back a few times for sure. But she showed earlier this term at Epsom on good to soft ground that she’s capable of being very competitive in decent handicaps off this kind of mark when she gets her conditions.

She hasn’t been able to run on ground with cut since then and she’s had excuses each time since – with the surfaces at Newcastle and Goodwood not seeming to suit.

Based on her recent performances, she’s plenty to do. But that’s why she’s so friendless in the market. I think the softer ground is the key to her and she can go much better than the 20s suggests tomorrow. She has the assistance of Paul Hanagan in the saddle – and he’s on a great run at the moment. His presence has to be considered a plus.

The ATC Extra bet recap….

Remember, we don’t have to be betting in hundreds to make the game worthwhile or fun. A spend of a few quid is plenty to be going on with….

  • IMSHIVALLA @ 20s (Skybet)

Note: The standard place terms are ¼ 1-2-3-4. One or two of the firms may offer the 5th place. But you will need to hang fire to get that. I’m backing the horse each-way.


That’s all from me this week. Enjoy your weekend.

Nick

Until next time, be lucky.

Nick Pullen

Against the Crowd Extra