7th October 2016
Good afternoon, friends,
In today’s ATC Extra bulletin….
Tomorrow’s Download the Coral App Stakes at York (2.35) is the race we are targeting for a value-oriented bet this weekend.
It’s a class 2 event run over the 10f trip and is open to horses aged 3yo+. A field of 10 runners goes to post on ground described as good to firm.
It’s a pretty competitive affair with 7 of the last 10 runners having made the first 2 last time out – and 6 of the runners having posted a personal best on the Racing Post rating scale.
Chancery won it for David O’Meara last year off a mark of 98. He went up to 102 for that win but has since dropped back down to 89.
On the balance of his best form he’s well-weighted but it would take a huge leap of faith to back him to serve up a repeat dose, given that he’s shown very little in half a dozen of the 8 races he’s run since.
Great Order (9/4 with bet365), Central Square and Cote D’Azur (5s and 6s with the same firm) are easy to make a strong case for. But the prices don’t make a lot of appeal for this column – where the focus is on backing live contenders also trading at nice prices. We must look elsewhere for our wager.
We’ll get to that in a moment, first a quick word on how I’m playing the big feature handicaps on the cards at Newmarket and York tomorrow afternoon….
How I’m playing tomorrow’s feature handicaps….
Over on my paid Against the Crowd service this afternoon I’m targeting the two feature handicaps on the cards at Newmarket and York….
If you’re looking for a couple more bets for tomorrow afternoon you can access those picks free of charge right now by taking a FREE test-drive of my Against the Crowd service….
LORD BEN STACK is the each-way one for me in tomorrow’s target race at the 11s with bet365. Things have really clicked for the 4yo in the last 6 weeks.
Considered good enough at the time to contest Golden Horn’s G2 Dante Stakes at York in 2015, he kind of dropped off the radar afterwards and he started this term with a couple of efforts that can only be termed disappointing when looked at on paper.
But both those runs came over an unsuitable mile and when stepped back up to 10f at Haydock at the start of last month, he won a C3 handicap in good fashion. He backed that up with another C3 handicap win over 12f next time out at the same Lancashire track.
He’s up to a mark of 102 now but the manner in which he won that last race at Haydock suggests there is still more to come. He made all, went well clear 2f out and stayed on strongly.
It’s fair to say he didn’t defeat any world-beaters that afternoon but he comes here on a roll, at the top of his game and with the scope to improve again.
This is a good horse who connections have always thought highly of – and he is now beginning to deliver on that belief.
After the first Haydock win connections were talking about the Cambridegshire as a target. That didn’t happen but it was nevertheless an instructive pointer to their belief in Lord Ben Stack’s ultimate destination on the official handicap list.
More years than not you need to post a performance worth at least 112 on the Racing Post rating scale to win a Cambridgeshire. If that’s what they think he can produce then he should be on the premises in this race tomorrow.
For sure there’s plenty of competition. The opposition is very solid tomorrow. And he won’t get it all his own way up-front like last time. But the track will suit this long-striding horse and if, as I believe, there’s more to come from him and he shows up in the mood to turn it on, he’s the one in the market who could look generously priced-up after the event.
The ATC Extra bet recap….
Remember, we don’t have to be betting in hundreds to make the game worthwhile or fun. A spend of a few quid is plenty to be going on with….
Download the Coral App Stakes, York (2.35):
Note: Bet365 are currently up with best-price and place terms of 1/4 1-2-3.
I’ve banked £700 worth of profit on the tennis recently – a sport I know nothing about. I didn’t guess my way to that profit though. I got the bets via Tom Wilson’s Total Tennis Betting service…
It’s the best tennis service on the market – and it’s FREE. You can get Tom’s advice, insight and picks free of charge here. I recommend it.
That’s all from me this week. Enjoy your weekend.