Friday, 21st October 2016
Good afternoon, contrarians,
On the menu today….
We have the luxury of 48-hour declarations on the flat. So we know on Thursday afternoon what is likely to be running on Saturday.
It works differently over the jumps. Final declarations are not released until lunchtime on Friday – and prices – key to our contrarian approach – can take a while to go up afterwards.
That’s the issue I’ve had to wrestle with today. So it’s been a case of waiting around and twiddling my thumbs – waiting to see the actual shape of the markets I’m interested in and prices for the specific horses I’ve earmarked for attention.
Now that the prices I need have gone in, there’s only one bet I’m interested in….
Over at Cheltenham I’m minded to back Nigel Twiston Davies’s COGRY in the Randox Handicap Chase over the 3 mile and 1 furlong trip (1.50).
The 7-year-old has been highly-tried and put some useful long-distance handicap form in the book last term. But he was only 6 and he will be a stronger proposition with another summer behind him.
He can be backed at 10s right now and I think that’s a fair-enough price given that he’s running out of a yard with a very solid track record with first-time-up performers in handicaps at this particular meeting – a yard also pitching up in very good form.
I’m not one for paying much attention to so-called ‘inside information’ and – to be completely accurate – I don’t have access to any. But gallops reports that emerged earlier this week reported that Cogry worked very well and did not give the impression of a horse that would need the run.
The Contrarian Bet Box….
To recap on where my contrarian money will be going tomorrow afternoon….
In the Randox Handicap Chase (1.50 Cheltenham)....
That is my take on where the value lies – but you will no doubt have your own ideas and that’s exactly as it should be.
That’s all from me for today. I’ll be back a little later with ATC Extra.