25th November 2016
Good afternoon, friends,
In today’s ATC Extra bulletin….
This afternoon we set our sights on tomorrow’s bet365 Handicap Chase at Newbury (3.45) where a field of 11 go to post on ground described as good to soft.
Tomorrow’s card-closer at Newbury isn’t the most prestigious or valuable race we will target this term, but it is a competitive little event – with 7 previous course and distance winners taking part – and is well worth our attention.
Paul Nicholls is one of two handlers coming into this race with their horses in a purple patch of form.
Nicholls has a good record in this event – his last 9 representatives producing 3 wins and a place. But I can't possibly back his Ulck Du Lin tomorrow afternoon – at any price.
The 8yo won this race as a 4yo back in 2012 but his last 3 runs offer no encouragement whatsoever – getting beaten an aggregate of 173 lengths.
If he does happen to go in tomorrow, I’d imagine Mr. Nicholls will be in the Stewards’ room explaining the turnaround in form.
We’ll get to that other trainer and my selection in a moment. First a quick word on the other races I’m playing in this weekend….
Bets in the Hennessy and the Rehearsal….
Over on my paid Against the Crowd service this afternoon I’m targeting two additional races at Newbury and Newcastle….
If you’re looking for a couple more bets for tomorrow afternoon you can access those picks free of charge right now by taking a FREE test-drive of my Against the Crowd service….
The other form trainer heading into tomorrow’s bet365 Handicap Chase at Newbury (3.45) is Colin Tizzard and I can’t let his ULTRAGOLD to go off unbacked at 8s with the race sponsors.
He hasn’t exactly set the wires buzzing with his two appearances to date this term. But neither assignment was particularly easy.
First time up at Cheltenham he was well beaten. But last time over the extended 18f at Exeter in a G2 handicap he went well for a long way from the front – getting some of his opponents at it with a display of bold jumping – and he was only beaten off by his better-rated rivals late in the game.
Those two runs – the last in particular – will have sharpened his fitness to a peak. And the drop back in trip gives him every chance of showing up to best effect tomorrow. It is worth noting that his last two wins came at 2 miles after being given prep runs over further.
Ultragold is one of those with previous at the track. He won over tomorrow’s trip back in April – producing something close to a personal best in the process.
Man-of-the-moment in the Tizzard yard, Tom O’Brien, takes the ride on the horse for the first time. I see that as a plus. He’s riding with a great deal of confidence right now with 7 winners over the last 14 days. On Tizzard horses he’s 7 wins from 27 since the beginning of September.
The place terms of 1/4 1-2-3 (bet365) and 1/5 1-2-3 (generally) don’t appeal to me at the price. So, I’ll be going two-against-the-field with FOU ET SAGE as my second selection at 7s.
The 5yo made a pleasing start for his new trainer, Henry Whittington, at Wetherby last month and he can build on that in his first start in open handicap company.
He’s still unexposed and was rated as high as 143 as a hurdler. A chase mark of 137 suggests he could be currently ahead of the handicapper.
I’m looking for one of my two to win the race and produce an overall profit.
The ATC Extra bet recap….
Remember, we don’t have to be betting in hundreds to make the game worthwhile or fun. A spend of a few quid is plenty to be going on with….
I’m going two-against-the-field – backing both horses to win.
That’s all from me this week. Enjoy your weekend.