9th December 2016
Good afternoon, friends,
In today’s ATC Extra bulletin….
This weekend we take a shot at the prices in the bet365 Handicap Chase up at Doncaster tomorrow afternoon (12.55)….
A field of 11 runners goes to post for the class 2 event run over the 3-mile trip. The ground is currently described as good (good to soft in places). There is a little light rain forecast. But it looks like being decent racing ground….
There are no last-time-out winners in the field, but several have already produced decent efforts this term and it’s a competitive enough little event.
With just 11 runners in the field, the place terms of 1/5 1-2-3 don’t make much appeal and I’ll be foregoing the place money and going with two-against-the-field. I’ll be looking for one of them to do the business and to come out of the race with a profit.
We’ll get to my selections in just a moment. First, a word on the day’s other bet over at Cheltenham in the feature race….
The value in the Caspian Caviar Gold Cup….
Over on my paid Against the Crowd service this afternoon it’s not the busiest weekend for us – there is a dearth of the kinds of races we like….
If you’re looking for an extra bet for tomorrow afternoon, you can access my big-race pick free of charge right now by taking a FREE test-drive of my Against the Crowd service….
Unfortunately, none of the firms are up with prices for the bet365.com Handicap Chase (Doncaster, 12.55) at 4pm. Not even the race sponsors.
We are reduced this week to making do with the prices on the industry tissue. These are a guide - and come sometimes prove wide or short of the mark. But we must work with what we have.
You can always take a view as and when one of the firm breaks for cover with prices....
KNOCK HOUSE hasn’t been seen on the track yet this season. He’s been off for 245 days – but I’m not concerned about that.
He has an excellent record of doing the business at the first-time-of-asking. Off breaks off 150-days+ his form figures read: 1312. So, we can expect the 7-year-old to be forward enough again to do himself justice tomorrow – on what will be his first run for Donald McCain’s yard.
The son of Old Vic ran a cracker to hit the frame in the Kim Muir at the Festival in March off a mark of 144. And the 3lb he’s slipped down the rankings in the meantime can only be of assistance.
His current rating is just a pound above his last winning mark. That win came at Cheltenham in November last year (on seasonal debut) and if he replicates that performance tomorrow he will be very much on the premises.
Knock House is in at 7s on the tissue. I'd be happy with that. Better would, of course, be a bonus.
The other one I’m going with is Richard Hobson’s VALADOM.
He was quietly fancied for last week’s Grand Sefton at Aintree – but he didn’t get very far. He ploughed through the Chair (fence 3), lost his place and was pulled-up before the 7th.
That would have been disappointing for connections. The time before that at Bangor he’d won very well – making all and seeing out his race strongly. They really fancied a crack at the Sefton.
I can forgive a horse a mistake first-time-up over the idiosyncratic National fences and I prefer to look at the Bangor form and the form of his win at Uttoxeter in May as a more accurate benchmark of the horse.
The form of that Uttoxeter race has worked out very nicely – producing multiple subsequent winners. Indian Stream, the horse Valadom beat into 2nd that day (albeit getting weight) – is now rated 148 over fences. Valadom runs tomorrow off 141.
As I say, I’m not concerned about last week’s mishap. The race couldn’t have taken too much out of the horse and the fact he shows up here just 7 days later suggests he came out of the race okay and that connections want to make the most of a progressive horse that is fit and firing. He can make amends tomorrow.
Valadom is in at 8s on the industry tissue. That's a fair price. If we can get better when the firms go up with prices, better still.
The prices and the place terms make no each-way appeal. I’ll be backing both horses to win.
The ATC Extra bet recap….
Remember, we don’t have to be betting in hundreds to make the game worthwhile or fun. A spend of a few quid is plenty to be going on with….
That’s all from me this week. Enjoy your weekend.
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