Wednesday, 17th July 2019
Nick has been called away from his desk today....
So, we reach into the ATC archive and revisit advice that doesn’t diminish with age....
Over to Nick, who will be back tomorrow....
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Even the best racing punters make regular dumbass moves....
We take a silly price that looks suicidal in retrospect. We back horses on the wrong ground. We go to war on a wrong–headed hunch....
We bet bigger than we should – motivated by greed and temporarily blind to the fact that greedy money seldom wins....
On those occasions where good sense goes out of the window, we pay the price of our folly through the pocket....
One of the keys to successful race-betting is to minimize the dumbass moves we make....
Another is to accept responsibility when we do make them – and to learn from the experience....
Failure to learn from our errors condemns us to repeat the same mistakes again....
Making the same mistakes repeatedly will decimate your overall betting performance and compound your financial losses....
Learning from mistakes, and improving your actions based on what you learn, is central to improving your betting performance. The most cost–effective way I know of learning from mistakes is to learn from those of other punters....
By closely observing the actions taken by fellow punters, and noting the quality of outcome achieved, you can learn from their experiences whilst avoiding the financial cost. It’s a great win double....
With this thought in mind it becomes abundantly clear that the average common–garden ‘mug’ punter is a particularly valuable resource for the betting student....
Mug punters have much to teach us – if only we take the time to observe and learn. Nobody is better qualified than your mug punter to offer instruction on the basics of bad betting and how to excel at it....
Let’s have a look at how a ‘mug’ typically bets and see what basic lessons we can remind ourselves....
It’s an average Saturday afternoon in the betting shop and Johnny Bigshot is busy lecturing his mates on how his dog in the next race at Belle Vue simply can’t be beat....
‘It was odds–on last–time–out when it got walloped. They’ll have it ready for sure this time. They’ll want to get the money back. I’m getting on.’
The beer’s been flowing since noon and Johnny’s mates take the opportunity to yank his chain. They laugh in his face and tell him the dog’s a dud and that he is the punting world’s equivalent of the village idiot....
Glassy–eyed Johnny is already unsteady on his legs. He’s sunk plenty of strong lager this lunchtime. Now his betting credentials are being called into question and he rears up in inebriated outrage....
‘Put your money where your mouth is, Johnny Bigshot,’ one mate rags him....
‘Don’t worry,’ Johnny splutters. ‘I’m going to.’
‘A proper bet too,’ another mate goads. ‘A man’s bet. Not a £5 lady’s punt.’
‘I’m going to,’ Johnny snaps back – swallowing the bait....
Normally Johnny is a basic £5 win punter. Today he’s got £150 in his back pocket. But this is the money saved for the electricity bill, the council tax, nappies for the kids and life–saving medication for the wife....
In the heat of the moment all this is forgotten or ignored. Wild–eyed Johnny Bigshot writes out a slip, peels £30 from his wad and hands it over at the counter. They won’t mess with Johnny Bigshot again, he thinks to himself....
Ten minutes later Johnny is sat on a stool with his jaw hanging open slack and wide. He’s turned a very pale shade of green....
The dog got bumped on the first turn and was never in the race after that. Johnny’s £30 punt has gone west and that £150 had had in his pocket now amounts to £120....
The laughter has died down and Johnny’s mates are ready for more ale. But Johnny has sobered up. He’s got a problem to solve – whether to go without electricity, the kid’s nappies or the wife’s medication....
We’ve all seen it happen – more than one time too. The lesson is straightforward. Only bet what you can truly afford to lose....
There are no certainties in racing, golf, tennis, football or any other sport. Horses, dogs and men are not machines. Unexpected and unwanted results are a frequent occurrence....
Expect to win when you put a bet on – but accept that you can lose....
Stick within strict staking limits and never finance your betting with money you need for any other purpose....
When you hand over your stake, accept that it’s gone. If it comes back, that’s a bonus. If you can’t bet that way, then you probably shouldn’t be playing at all.
When you really need to win – the chances are you won’t. Desperate, emotional and impulsive bets seldom do....
His mates are back in the pub. But Johnny hasn’t joined them. He’s hard at work desperately trying to make some sense of the next race at Chepstow. He wants that £30 back. And a bit more besides if he can get it....
What he doesn’t want to do is go home to the wife and admit to his stupidity.
In his addled mind he can still win the day, pay the bills, get the supplies and turn a profit. He’s not giving up. Johnny’s got the big spade out now. He’s going to keep on digging....
‘I’ve just got to think straight and let the magic flow,’ he tells himself, whilst trying to ignore that twisted feeling in the depths of his gut....
He latches onto the 9/4 jolly. ‘It’s a short–price for a reason. It’s got to win.’
He does the mathematics and bangs £20 on the nose. If this one comes in, he’ll walk away with a £45 profit – enough to pay for the last losing bet and produce a £15 profit....
Sitting on the stool, chewing on the end of a pen, he feels he’s already pulled the job out of the fire. Nothing can stop him now – unless that 9/4 jolly goes down....
And, of course, it does go down – nailed on the line by a rag....
It feels like a rusty dagger plunged deep into his spinal column. That £150 for bills is now £100. He’s lost £50 he cannot afford to....
Johnny thinks about cutting his losses and walking away – for all of five seconds....
But he doesn’t. Instead he goes on tilt and starts chasing. £10 on a 6/1 shot. £10 on a 7/1 shot. £20 on a 9/2 shot. £10 on a 10/1 shot.
Four more bets, four more losers and now Johnny’s got his head in his hands. That £150 is now worth £50. He’s £100 down on his afternoon – and he’d only ever intended to have a fiver on a dog....
But that’s the problem with chasing losses. It inevitably leads to more losses and a bad situation swiftly tuns into something much worse....
Erratic and schizophrenic staking compounds the issue....
So too does striking bets based on how much you need to win rather than on your objective assessment of their chances....
Chasing is a condition which often inflicts those punters who have already bet more than they can afford to lose.
Avoid one problem and you can avoid the next. Don’t bet what you can’t afford to lose. When you lose, never chase your losses. Let them go....
When you lose, accept the loss and wait for the next good betting opportunity to come along. Don’t get sucked into playing bet after bet until you’re either square or destitute....
There’s one more race to come – the last race of the day.
‘This is the race,’ Johnny tells the stranger standing next to him. ‘This one will get me back level. It’s got to. I’m due a winner, mate. I can feel it in my bones.’
‘Give it a miss, son,’ the old timer tells him. ‘It’s a 27–runner bumper. Half of these have never even run before. Complete unknowns. They could be anything. It’s a minefield. Come back tomorrow. There’s always tomorrow....’
‘Shut your hole, Grandad,’ Johnny mutters to himself as he moves away to study the scant form of the runners....
He finds nothing on which to base a betting decision and looks to the first betting show for inspiration and instruction....
The favourite opens at 7/2. ‘I can still do it,’ Johnny tells himself. ‘£50 at 7/2 means I’d be £25 up on the day.’
He takes the price. His money is down, the die is cast and Johnny’s day – and maybe even his marriage – hangs on the outcome of this guessing bet....
He’ll go home a few quid up at best – with all his domestic obligations fulfilled. Or he’ll head home with empty pockets and nothing to look forward to outside of decapitation....
I’ll leave you to fill in the blanks and speculate on how things turned out for Johnny....
There are times when I’ve seen people spectacularly rescue a day’s punting in the last race. But more often, a punter fails to pull out of the steep dive and hits the ground in a ball of flames....
Either way, the experience is emotionally intense and best avoided....
When winning is more about relief than pleasure, you know you’ve been betting the wrong way....
Don’t bet if you can’t accept losing. Don’t bet what you can’t afford to lose....
Don’t chase losses. Don’t be afraid to have losing days. Last–ditch rescue efforts can add another big loss to already big losses. Hold your fire until the right race to recoup losses comes along....
The right race doesn’t necessarily mean the next race or the last race of the meeting.
Be patient. Race-betting is a game for stayers. Not for 5f sprinters. Pace yourself. It doesn’t all have to happen at once....
It’s always useful to revisit the basics from time to time....
That’s all from me for today.
I’ll be back in your inbox tomorrow....
Until then. Stay tuned.
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