Tuesday, 13th August 2024
York’s Ebor meeting starts next Wednesday – and the prep starts here….
There are plenty of competitive handicaps to target at the meeting….
…. but the headline event is the Ebor – run on the Saturday….
It’s a good race for punters who like a price….
…. there are always runners up at quotes which underestimate their true chance....
Some things have changed in the race….
…. prize money has improved in recent years….
…. and better horses are running in the Ebor than was once the case….
But one thing hasn’t changed….
…. the race – scheduled to take place on Saturday week….
…. is run around the flat 1m6f strip at York….
…. comprising three left-handed bends....
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A disadvantage?
Whenever there’s a big-field race run around one or more bends….
…. we must be open to the possibility that the horses drawn widest….
…. are at a disadvantage to the horses drawn lowest....
It makes sense, doesn’t it?
The horses drawn out wide will likely cover more ground than those drawn inside – and that can’t be advantageous....
Either that or the riders on those horses drawn wide will need to sacrifice valuable energy early doors….
…. in order to secure better early racing position on the track….
…. a manoeuvre that might cost them dear at the business end of the race….
…. when every ounce of reserve energy will count....
The case for a low draw over a high draw makes theoretical sense….
…. but sense and practice rarely come together where horse racing is concerned....
It’s one of the sport’s many charms….
…. and a feature of the game that encourages people like me to persist with the delusion that we might one day become clever enough to finally crack the code once and for all....
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Theory & practice….
What makes sense theoretically does not meet with what generally happens in practice in the Ebor at York….
…. please note the 2008 renewal was run at Newbury....
Eighteen of the last 21 Ebor winners at York ran from a double-figure stall. The details appear below….
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This is not science….
A sample of just 21 hardly amounts to scientific rigour. Any fool knows that....
And what happened in the last 21 editions of the Ebor at York might well turn out to be a statistical aberration over the course of the next millennium....
…. but I don’t have the luxury of waiting that long to find out. I must take a view on this issue now....
…. and, right now, I can’t accept that so many horses overcame what – on paper – appears to be a disadvantage….
…. as a result of blind luck….
…. or sheer happenstance....
The distribution of placed horses supports this view too....
35 of the 76 placed horses in those 21 Ebor renewals at York (I consider 5th a place in races with 20+ runners) were drawn in a single-figure stall....
Yes…. that’s right….
…. the figures for the placed-horse conform a little more closely to the theoretical expectation….
…. that low drawn horses should do well....
But the low stalls still managed to produce less than 50% of the placers over the period....
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Not the advantage it seems….
Perhaps the conclusion we should draw….
…. however tentative….
…. is that being drawn low in the Ebor at York is not the advantage it appears to be on paper….
…. that it is not the plus-point that sense or theory suggest it should be....
…. that it might instead represent an impediment or a handicap on some level....
I don’t want to get all theoretical on you….
…. my race-riding experience amounts to the thin end of nothing whittled to a fine point....
…. but maybe horses drawn low in this big-field long-distance event….
…. get swept along a little too quickly early-on….
…. and are positioned to have no say in the matter....
…. whilst those drawn wider
…. are free to drop-in behind
…. to take things more sedately early-doors….
…. and to conserve energy for the big push late on....
I don’t know. But that’s how it seems to me....
However rich the contest….
…. however grand the horses and connections
…. and as counter intuitive as it might first appear….
…. out wide is a good place to start in the Ebor....
That’s all for today….
Back tomorrow….
Meanwhile – get in touch direct at: nick.pullen@oxonpress.co.uk
Stay tuned.
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