Wednesday, 14th August 2024
York’s Ebor meeting starts next Wednesday....
There are plenty of competitive handicaps to target….
…. but the headline event is Ebor – run on the Saturday….
It’s a good race for punters who like a price….
…. there are always runners up at quotes which underestimate their true chance....
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History is useful….
The historic record Is my first port of call with big handicaps – stats related to previous renewals....
Of course, stats don’t win handicap races – well-treated horses do. But stats are useful nonetheless....
They offer an informative starting point for analysis – an initial route into a race. That’s how I use the stats – as a starting point. No more. No less....
The statistical record tells you a lot about the type of horse that tends to win a specific contest – and why....
It can point to horses of interest – worthy of deeper investigation. It can help you reduce a big field to a shortlist of best-qualified types....
The statistical record can be a good place to start....
That said there are few hard and fast rules you can rely on in racing. Long-term readers know as much....
Cling too tightly to any stat or trend and you run the risk of being undone by Sod’s Law – written specifically to undermine punter-complacency....
But we can use what went before to construct an outline picture....
…. to weigh variables....
…. to understand the nature of percentages….
…. and how they’ve played out....
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The trouble with the Ebor….
…. but punters need to be careful with the Ebor.
…. the nature of the race has changed in recent times....
In 2017, winning connections banked £177k. In 2018 they won £311k. In 2019 they won £600k. In 2020 the win pot fell to £140k on account of COVID-19….
…. but the prize fund was back at £300k in 2022 & 2023 – and it’s the same this year….
The upshot is a better race – because bigger prize pots attract better horses….
The average official rating of an Ebor runner in 2017 was 104.6. In 2018 – 105.6. In 2019 – 109.2. In 2020 – 103.5. In 2021 – 106.8. In 2022 – 104.8. And last year it was a little down at 101.0….
The average official rating of an Ebor runner since 2017 is 105.1 – a high standard for a handicap. Money talks….
It’s difficult to predict the average rating of the field this year – but it will resemble 2021 and 2022 more than it will resemble 2012….
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How it was….
There was a time when betting a low-weighted horse rated in the 90s (or even 80s) was the way forward for value-seekers in the Ebor….
Back then, smaller yards with a dark horse had a real shot at glory. More recently, those horses haven’t had a sniff of even getting a run….
The future trend in the Ebor will be towards more runners from bigger and more powerful yards with the better horses….
Major-league yards will send Group-class horses into this handicap because the rewards demand it and the weights won’t be prohibitive….
…. because the field will be almost entirely made up of similarly highly-rated animals….
The Ebor is becoming a Melbourne Cup style race – run in Britain….
I have no problem with that. But it changes things for punters – specifically those who slavishly follow trends....
Previously established trends have been undermined. The Ebor is a completely different race now to what it was just a few years ago….
Previous rules do not apply. Bear that in mind next week....
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Case in point….
I had someone lob a stat at me yesterday....
‘Seventeen of the last 22 Ebor winners carried 9-04 or less....’
That’s a proud little stat. But what use is it?
The stat refers in the main to editions of the race in which the spread between top-rated horse and bottom-rated horse amounted to up to 20 points on the rating scale – or 20 pounds in weight carried....
I stress again – the race has changed. What happed 20 or 15 or even 8 years ago is no longer relevant....
In 2018 – with more prize money up for grabs – the spread amounted to just 10 points across 20 runners. In 2019, it was 8 points across 22 runners….
…. the spread was bigger in 2021 & 2021 before dropping back down to 10 points in 2022….
Last year – a weaker recent renewal – the spread rose back to 14 points….
In recent years – where the spread was at the bigger end of the spectrum – you can look at the participation of high-rated horses (at least in terms of handicaps) as a cause….
In 2021 Euchen Glen and Fujaira Price ran off respective ratings of 116 and 114 – making them the 2nd & 3rd highest rated horses ever to take part in the race. Take them out and the spread was 10lbs….
In 2020 Deja ran off 112 (making him the 5th highest-rated horse to run). Take him out and the spread was 12lbs….
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Things will settle down….
Over time….
…. as the bigger prize fund attracts more and more highly rated runners….
…. the lower-rated horses will be squeezed out of line-up….
…. and spreads will diminish – and stabilise….
In my opinion compressed weights will be a primary race trend going forward over the next decade – one or two years of aberration aside….
And that trend will very much favour the higher-rated and highest-weighted horses – the really classy types….
…. a lower spread makes it easier for them to compete carrying more weight....
In 2018, the winner carried 9-09. In 2019 – 9-05. In 2020 – 9-08. In 2021 – 9-08. In 2022 – 9-03. And last year – 9-07….
That’s right!
Five of the last six years are the five years out of the last 22….
…. when the impressive stat I was talking about….
…. failed to translate!
The old 17 out of 22 stat might read like a field-splitter made from 32-carot gold….
…. but looks can be deceptive….
You need to dig deeper and think harder to get to the truth....
And the truth is this –the Ebor has changed as a race over the last few years.
Old and worn-out field-splitters won’t help you now….
…. they will only lead you down blind alleys….
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The final word….
That’s all for today….
Back tomorrow….
Meanwhile – get in touch direct at: nick.pullen@oxonpress.co.uk
Stay tuned.
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