Thursday, 15th August 2024
York’s Ebor meeting starts next Wednesday....
There are up to a dozen handicaps to shoot over the four days….
…. and there’s sure to be plenty of value bets to be found….
My mission – as always – is to take on the favourites and the most fancied horses….
…. and to dig-out ‘live’ contenders that can run big races at fancy prices....
If I do that job effectively over the long-term….
…. the winners – and the payouts – take care of themselves in-between times....
If you missed my Ebor pointers earlier in the week….
…. you can catch up here & here….
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Finding wrong ‘uns….
Whenever I play a handicap race my basic objective is to back a ‘live’ contender at the wrong price….
Easy said. But how do you go about finding such horses?
That’s the million-dollar question....
Every race is unique….
…. there’s no one element of voodoo that works the magic every time….
…. and every punter has his own way of doing things....
Me? I take each race on its own merits….
…. I study the runners and riders – from multiple angles….
…. and I see what jumps out at me....
It’s a time consuming process requiring plenty of focus and energy….
…. and that’s why most punters don’t bother with the ‘homework’ aspect of the game....
No problem. Each to his own….
…. my way isn’t the only way, after all....
Another way to play the races is to find a qualified angle of approach that will put you into play across a series of races – rather than just one….
…. and by qualified angle – I mean one with a history of producing winners, placers & betting profit....
It’s time to put my money where my mouth is….
Gun-to-head now – here’s an angle to consider for next week’s Ebor meeting at York....
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Back this guy to strike….
When someone puts a gun to your head for racing information that will pay….
…. it’s handy to have informed opinions, angles, or strategies rooted in fact....
Sometimes, an angle is all facts-based….
Sometimes it is largely facts – but facts with a bit of intuitive reasoning or speculation (potentially more unreliable, of course) built in....
My angle for next week’s handicaps at the Ebor meeting is one of the former and it’s this….
…. support C2 handicappers trained by Michael Dods....
You don’t have to bet them blind….
…. you can study any qualifiers and then take a view….
…. but all Dods’s handicappers are well worth your consideration next week. That’s my deduction....
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What the data says….
I spent most of yesterday analyzing data relating to every single horse that ran in a handicap at York at C4 level or better since May 2010….
That’s a dataset that covers more than 13,000 horses….
…. across 952 races….
I learnt a few bits and pieces too….
I learnt that between them three of the Yorkshire powerhouse trainers – Richard Fahey, Tim Easterby, and David O’Meara – had 2865 qualified runners (22% of the total participants)….
…. that nobody saddled more qualifying winners than O’Meara – 72 of them….
…. that nobody saddled more total placers (winners & places) than Richard Fahey – 242 of them
…. and that nobody has a better strike rate in the qualifying York handicaps over the last 14-years than the Gosden team….
They don’t send too many handicappers to the track – just 86 over the qualifying period….
…. but they do well….
….. with 17 winning and 17 placing – which equates to a win strike rate of 19.8% and a total place strike rate of 39.5%....
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The 30%+ club….
Only three other yards managed to produce a total place strike rate of 30%+ in the good York handicaps over the study period….
Sir Michael Stoute weighs in at an impressive 37.6%....
…. with his 117 runners producing 18 winners and 26 additional placers….
But the trouble with Stoute is that his figures rely heavily on the exploits of yesteryear….
…. he’s only saddled a single qualifying winner since 2017….
…. and it’s not like the yard is on the up-and-up as the old maestro heads towards retirement….
William Haggas also has an impressive record….
…. with his 255 qualifying runners producing 45 winners and 46 additional placers – a total place strike rate of 35.7%….
No doubt he’ll be a force to be reckoned with again next week….
…. but the problem – as is the case with the Gosdens and their runners – will be price….
Only five of Haggas’s 45 qualifying winners were sent off at 10s or bigger….
…. and none of those was bigger than 12s….
In other words, the Haggas runners are almost always well-found by the market….
…. and making a worthwhile profit backing his handicappers next week is likely to prove difficult….
The member of the exclusive 30%+ club to focus on is Michael Dods….
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The Dods breakdown….
Over the last 14-year period Michael Dods saddled 269 runners in C4 handicaps or better at York….
…. producing 33 winners….
…. and 58 placers….
…. at a total place strike rate of 33.8%....
If you’d stuck to just the runners in C2 handicaps – the races this column focuses on….
…. you’d have backed 20 winners and 30 additional placers from 128 runners….
…. which equates to a total place strike rate of 39%....
…. and if you’d backed them all 1pt e/w at SP you’d be sitting on a profit of 72.5 points….
The Ebor meeting in particular is an especially happy hunting ground for Dods and his team in C2 handicaps….
…. his 43 qualifying runners produced 7 winners and 8 additional placers….
…. at a total place strike rate of 34.8%....
If you’d backed them all 1pt e/w you’d be 44 points up….
And don’t forget – those profit & loss figures are recorded at SP….
…. you’d have done better still taking with early-bird prices, betting at Betfair SP or playing the Tote….
Whichever way you choose to slice and dice the numbers – Michael Dods does well….
…. in York handicaps generally….
…. especially in C2 handicaps at the track….
…. and – in particular – at next week’s specific meeting….
If you put a gun to my head….
…. Dods-trained horses in next week’s C2 handicaps would be my idea of a boss angle….
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That’s all for today….
Back tomorrow….
Meantime – contact me direct at – nick.pullen@oxonpress.co.uk
Stay tuned….
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