Monday, 16th February 2026
In ATC today….
The weights for the Grand National are released tomorrow….
…. it’s a good time for value hunters to dig out ante-post bets….
…. and today I present you with a ‘blueprint’ that will help you split the field and isolate ‘live’ contenders ….
Oh…. but be aware that some long-term trends are very much on the turn….
Read on….
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The weights for the Grand National are released tomorrow….
…. and now is a good time for value-hunting punters like us to remind ourselves that Grand National winners tend to share certain characteristics and credentials….
They possess similar qualifications….
…. they tend to have achieved similar things and met similar yardsticks….
…. their careers have been constructed around common themes….
…. their respective campaigns have similar and consistent features….
In short, Grand National winners frequently meet the same broad criterion….
…. they frequently tick the same set of boxes….
…. they measure up similarly to a broad-brush statistical profile….
Conversely, horses that fail to meet the criteria laid down by these long-standing trends frequently fall short of getting competitive....
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It’s fair to say that trends will not always point you directly to a winner – at least not on their own….
…. but they will help you split a field into the horses that fit the winning trends most closely and those who match them least….
…. and that’s information that can help you reach betting decisions….
No horse will meet every trend in every race….
…. but we can take a subjective view and weigh up one thing against another....
…. and we can figure out which trends we think are most important against what else we know….
We might discard some trends….
…. with others, we might forgive a horse for not meeting the criteria – for whatever reason....
Either way, we get to take a view based on the solid, cold, and hard evidence of the historic record....
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I’ve studied the last 22 renewals of the Grand National and there are some strong and reliable signposts that point clearly to the ‘live’ contenders….
Here’s what I found….
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There’s no one right or wrong way to use this information….
You can use it to take a view on horses you’re already thinking about backing....
You can use it to take a view on all the horses still with the potential to make the final 34....
You can use it now or over the next few weeks in a bid to spot potential contenders and to back them in the ante-post markets….
Or you can bide your times and keep your powder dry until closer to the race itself....
That’s your call. Whatever you do, you’ve got the tool to hand that enables you to take an informed view….
…. and an informed view is more than 80% of the people you are betting against have got....
And an informed view represents a genuine edge in the market. At least that’s how I see it....
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Be aware this though – stats aren’t perfect. Sometimes they mislead….
Sometimes they highlight what was rather than what is or what is starting to be….
I think there’s a stat like that in the list above – the one that says 14 of the last 22 winners were aged between 9 and 11….
That stat is a factual statement. You can’t argue with it. And it reads convincingly….
But the Grand National is a different race these days to the race that it used to be – and on which the consolidated stat above is largely based….
It used to be the case that maturity was a distinct positive – reflected by the fact that there was only one winner aged younger than 9 (Bindaree in 2002) between Party Politics winning in 1992 and Many Clouds in 2015….
But the last few years have seen younger horses do better and better….
In 2015, nine 8yos raced – one won and another finished 5th….
In 2016, seven 8yos raced – three finished in the first 6….
In 2017, ten 8yos raced – one won, one was 4th and another 6th….
In 2018, eight 8yos raced – one won and another finished 4th….
In 2019, just five 8yos raced – one placed….
In 2021, eight 8yos raced (plus two 7yos) – an 8yo won, another two finished 4th and 7th and one of the 7yos finished 5th….
In 2022, eight 8yos raced (plus two 7yos) – one of the 7yos won, two of the 8yos placed and another 8yo finished 8th of the 40….
In 2023, eleven 8yos went to post (plus six 7yos) – two of the 8yos and one of the 7yos hit the frame….
In 2024, ten 8yos went to post (plus five 7yos) – one of the 8yos won, whilst another placed….
In 2025, ten 8yos went to post (plus four 7yos) – one of the 8yos won, two more finished 5th & 6th, whilst one of the 7yos finished 4th….
Races change…. outcomes evolve….
What was true once isn’t as true as it was…. what was unthinkable just a few years ago can swiftly become a new norm….
…. and the long-term stats take a while to catch up with the new reality….
In the last ten renewals of the Grand National six of the winners were 8, one was 7, and the other three winners were aged 9….
…. it been eleven renewals since 2014 and the last winner at a double-figure age. No 12yo has won the race since 2004….
…. and the shorter term figures strongly suggest punters are best served these days seeking out a young progressive staying chaser with the potential to out-perform his or her handicap rating….
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That’s all for today….
Back tomorrow….
Meantime – contact me at – nick.pullen@spapublishinggroup.co.uk
Stay tuned….
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