Wednesday, 18th February 2026
In ATC today….
The Swinley is good form, and the winner remains well-treated after reassessment….
…. I won’t be giving up on Jipcot either – who just went too hard too early….
…. and I’m adding an odd one to my Watch List because – on Saturday’s evidence – he’s going to win one pretty soon….
Oh…. and they just called time on the big handicap plot for the Cheltenham Festival….
Read on….
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So, The Wallpark won’t be going to the Cheltenham Festival, after all….
Like many others I thought he was a plot horse for the Ultima on day one….
…. he’d certainly been campaigned like one….
But when the weights for the Festival handicaps were released yesterday….
…. The Wallpark didn’t figure….
…. which was quite the upturn….
Perhaps the official British handicapper took my advice on the matter….
…. and awarded the horse a British rating based more on his hurdle mark than on what he’s been showing to date over fences (not unreasonable)….
…. a rating high enough to dissuade connections from persevering with their Festival plans altogether….
Not so, says Frank Berry (racing manager to JP McManus)….
…. adding that it was “never” the intention to go to Cheltenham at all….
Errr…. That sounds plausible, doesn’t it?
Berry continues….
“Everything is fine with him. There’s no real plan at the moment, but he’ll run somewhere at home.”
Something’s happened….
…. what was the plan has been derailed – whatever they’re telling us….
…. and now it’s back to the drawing board….
The news will come as a bitter pill to the slavering ante-post punters who’d backed the 8yo into near favoritism for both potential Festival assignments on the back of his latest run at Navan….
Everybody concerned – owner, manager, trainer, and punters – might take time to reflect on the wise words once warbled by Steven Patrick Morrissey….
“Oh, but plans can fall through as so often they do….”
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Saturday’s Swinley at Ascot – review here – is form worth monitoring….
…. with the per furlong fractions comparing very favorably to those produced in the G1 Ascot Chase won by Jonbon….
Montregrad – who ran from 3lb out of the handicap – is up 7lbs for his winning performance….
…. still looks well-treated on a revised mark of 132….
…. and he can surely land another nice pot for owner J P McManus (the ‘great man’ has plenty of ups to compensate for the inevitable downs)….
Do bear in mind though that pretty much everything Montregard’s achieved to date over fences has been produced at Ascot….
…. and that it remains to be seen if he can perform to the same effect elsewhere….
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I won’t be giving up on Jipcot – my pick for the race and a horse already installed on my Watch List….
He did pretty much all the donkey work that contributed so much to the overall time….
…. but would probably have benefited from a better-judged ride under Kielan Woods….
All his efforts came to nothing beyond setting the race up for a rival racing just that bit more circumspectly in behind him….
…. and getting well beaten off at the death….
They went pretty hard in the very early stages – so much so it looked like a 2-mile contest….
I’m not sure Jipcot was helped early on by having a very keen horse – Invincible Nao – on his inside….
…. or Joyeux Machin – who also wanted to get at it like a pig at a potato – on his outer….
All three logged a sub-12 second first furlong – which set a tone – and they probably served to cut one another’s throats….
Jipcot was either first or second all the way until his effort peaked more than a quarter mile from home….
…. and in the closing stages he simply had no gas left in the tank – dropping off quickly….
He’s improved for going forward in his races this term….
…. but when he doesn’t get it all his own way up front he can’t be dragged into a fight for the lead – leaving nothing for the finish….
…. and his rider needs to produce more even fractions in those circumstances….
A more efficient distribution of Jipcot’s energies will see him to better effect….
…. and I haven’t changed my view that he can land a proper handicap pot off his current – and unchanged – mark of 133….
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A 10yo horse whose already had 23 goes over hurdles….
…. and who is eighteen races down the line from his last win….
…. isn’t a typical addition to my Watch List ….
But I’m pretty sure that No Ordinary Joe is going to win a race at some point in the near future….
…. probably not a big valuable handicap – but certainly something….
When owned by JP McManus (he’s popping up everywhere today!) he was third in a Greatwood….
…. and second in a Martin Pipe – where he was just 1.5 lengths in arrears to Iroko (clear favourite for this season’s Grand National)….
He’s been pretty much off-the-boil ever since – tried in plenty of decent races but delivering very little….
…. but on Saturday at Ascot in the Betfair Exchange Handicap Hurdle – review here – he produced easily his best effort since joining Faye Bramley’s yard in early October….
He ended up finishing 5/14 but he was only beaten 4.75 lengths, and he went deep into the race – leading over the second last and only fading very late….
A wind-operation just before Christmas and the application of first-time cheekpieces – in addition to his habitual tongue-tie – might just have turned a key….
…. and it could be that he’s approaching the sort of shape he needs to be in to take advantage of an official rating of just 123 – down almost 20lb from his peak perch of 143….
Right now his rating says he’s a poorer horse than he’s ever been….
…. and it would have been difficult to argue with that assessment ahead of the weekend….
But the Ascot performance was encouraging….
…. he was in the thick of it at the business end of a race for the first time in a while….
…. and – on that evidence – something can be found for him off his basement-level mark….
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That’s all for today….
Back tomorrow….
Meantime – contact me at – nick.pullen@spapublishinggroup.co.uk
Stay tuned….
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