".... you're missing out if you don't do this...."

Tuesday, 3rd March 2026

“…. you’re missing out if you don’t do this….”

In ATC today….

The market data from last year’s Cheltenham Festival reveals one thing….

…. you’re missing out on the best prices if you don’t bet Betfair SP….

…. especially in the big-field handicaps….

Oh…. and the Tote isn’t doing what it is designed to do….

Read on….

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The table below shows returns paid on 27 races run at last year’s Cheltenham Festival….

…. by SP….

…. by Tote win dividend….

…. and by Betfair SP….

I’ve omitted Poniros and his shock win in the Triumph Hurdle….

…. because he was such an outlier at the prices his figures overwhelm the rest of the dataset….

For what it’s worth the SP returned 100/1….

….the Tote win dividend paid 162.20….

…. while Betfair SP weighed in at a whopping 225.81….

The first thing to note is how aligned Tote dividends are with SPs….

…. especially at the shorter end of the price range….

Even at the bigger end of the scale – where win SPs are 16s and bigger – the Tote’s win dividend isn’t bigger to the point you get hot under the collar….

If the Tote exists to provide punters with a pool-betting alternative to fixed odds betting and exchange markets….

…. it’s not doing what’s required….

One key area of difference must be on price…..

…. otherwise – what’s the bottom-line incentive for punters to even consider switching to Tote betting….

At least year’s Festival, you would have got a better return having backed all the winners on the Tote as against all the winners at SP….

…. a 61-point better return….

…. but it’s fair to say you weren’t getting much in the way of value at the shorter end of the prices….

 Betfair SP crushed the industry SP and Tote prices….

…. banking 345.25 points of profit across the 27 winners at Cheltenham….

…. beating SP by 87 points….

…. and beating Tote win dividends by 56.31 points….

Punters backing winners at SP or on the Tote are leaving a chunk of meat on the bone….

Anybody not at least considering moving betting business across to Betfair SP must be doing very well at SP – that’s all I can say….

And I think Betfair SP very much makes sense for punters like us – who like a price in a big-field handicap….

The table below shows the returns logged by SP, Tote win dividends and Betfair SP in the big open handicaps at last year’s Festival….

…. the very races I target specifically for bets at the meeting….

Betfair SP beat SP by almost 125 points in those races….

…. and beat the Tote’s win dividend by 63.61 points….

If you’re backing multiple horses on the day in a big handicap – especially horses at the top-end prices – it makes no sense at all to deny yourself the best-price option that Betfair SP represents….

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That’s all for today….

Back tomorrow….

Meantime – contact me at – nick.pullen@spapublishinggroup.co.uk

Stay tuned….

Against the Crowd