Monday, 11th June 2018
This time next week, we’ll be on the eve of the 2018 Royal meeting at Ascot....
It’s one of the best meetings on the British programme – boasting eight G1 races and eight massive handicaps....
Our primary focus on ATC will be with the latter racer than the former....
We might have a crack at the two extremes represented by the King’s Stand Stakes and the Gold Cup – simply because we like those races – but we are ostensibly about handicaps rather than conditions races....
Last week we made a start on the spadework for the Royal handicaps – highlighting what the historic record reveals about the Ascot Stakes, the Royal Hunt Cup and the Sandringham Handicap....
We begin this week in a similar vein – drawing the Britannia Stakes and the King George V Stakes under the spotlight....
Day 3 of the Royal meeting serves up the Britannia Stakes – a race first run back in 1928....
Run over the same trip – a mile – and the same part of the Ascot track as the previous day’s Royal Hunt Cup, the Britannia Stakes is another race that attracts a massive field year-on-year. A field of 21 went to post in 2005.
That would be a bumper field under any other circumstances – but not here. No fewer than 27 horses have gone to post every other year since 2002 – as far back as my personal records go....
The difference between this race and the Royal Hunt Cup is that this race is restricted to 3yo colts and geldings rated 0 to 105.
The money isn’t quite so good as the previous day’s race. In 2017 the race prize pot amounted to £120k with winning connections taking home £74k of that.
Favourites have won 3 of the last 16 renewals. Four more renewals since 2002 were taken by horses sent off in the top-3 in the betting. But it’s a mixed bag offering everybody encouragement with another 7 winners scoring at odds ranging from 16s to 33s. The average winning SP amounts to just under 15/1. 34 of the 48 horses to place over the test-period were sent off at 16s or bigger. Theirs is plenty to shoot for.
Before you head for the nitty-gritty of the formbook, there are one or two broader race features to factor into your thinking....
The King George V Stakes is another event to look forward to on Day 3 of the meeting....
It’s a class 2 event for 3yo horses rated 0 to 105. They go at it over the right-handed 12-furlong trip comprising two bends....
Once again, you can rely on a big field lining up. There’s only been one year since 2002 when less than 16-runners went to post....
Last year the prize pot amounted to £90k. Winning connections took home £56k of that....
Three favourites have won over the last 16-years (two of them joint-favourites). Another five renewals were won by horses sent off second or third in the betting.
The figures for this race are somewhat skewed by the fact that Richard Fahey’s Cosmic Sun produced a big shock in 2009 by winning the race having been sent off at 66s. Take that renewal out and the average winning SP over the period amounts to just over 9s.
The fact that only 14 of the 47 placers over the test-period were sent off at 16s or bigger tells you that the market has a better handle on this handicap than some of the others at the meeting.
That said, handicaps are handicaps. The right horse going off at the wrong price always has a chance. After, all he doesn’t know what price he is. And it is always worthwhile taking steps to dig such animals out.
Before you get the spade out, you should take heed of one or two factors arising from the historic record....
That’s enough to be getting on with for today....
I’ll be back in your inbox tomorrow....
Until then. Stay tuned.
