Key stats in the Duke of Edinburgh & the Wolferton....

Last Updated: 12.06.2018

Tuesday, 12th June 2018

Key stats in the Duke of Edinburgh & the Wolferton….

Today we continue where we left off yesterday – proceeding with our spadework for the Royal Ascot meeting that gets underway in just under a week’s time....

Our primary intention is to target the eight big handicaps contested at the meeting – seeking out ‘live’ contenders running at the wrong prices....

The historic record provides plenty of clues. Previous renewals of a race can tell us a little about what type of horses tends to go well....

Last week and this week we’ve been looking at the stats related to several of the Royal Ascot handicaps. Today we look at the strongest trends across the years in the Duke of Edinburgh and the Wolferton....

Without further ado....

  • Pointers in the Duke of Edinburgh....

Day 4 (Friday) brings with the Duke of Edinburgh Stakes – yet another big-field affair....

This one is a class 2 event for horses aged 3yo+ and rated 0 to 105 over the right-handed 12-furlong trip. They go around two bends....

Last year, the entire race purse amounted to £80k. Winning connections went home with just under £50k of that....

Just three winning favourites (one of them a joint favourite) over the last 16-years. Three more winners were sent off either second or third in the betting.

It’s a mixed bag of winners at prices across the spectrum. The average winning SP weighs in at a fraction under 11s.

Just a dozen of the 46 placers over the period were sent off at 16s or bigger. History says it’s a tougher race than most when it comes to value seeking....

But what has happened before – especially in handicaps is nothing like a certain guide as to what will unfold in the next edition of a race.

The market is always liable to completely under-estimate horses and it is always worthwhile looking to pinpoint those animals. They represent value. Back enough of those kinds of horses and the winners will look after themselves over time.

  • Notable features....

Before you submit this season’s runners to scrutiny, be sure to take note of some notable features this race has produced over the last 15-years or so....

  • Just two horses have been able to defy official ratings of 100 or more and win this race since 2002. The rest were rated 89 to 99. Eleven of the last 16 winners carried a double-figure saddlecloth number to post – suggesting they had yet to reveal their true hand to the handicapper. 
  • This race marries up to what we have found when looking at other races in this series: horses running from the double-figure stalls have had the whip hand. Thirteen of the last 16 winners came out of such a stall.
  • Only one horse has managed to overcome a break of 8-weeks or more from the track to win this race over the test-period. Nine of the previous 16 winners had been on the track at some point during the previous 4-weeks. Match-fitness is clearly an edge.
  • All the previous 16 winners were aged 4 or 5. Ten of the 16 were 4yos. 59 horses aged 6 or older have drawn a blank in terms of wins. At least one of the younger horses – more lightly-raced, less exposed and open to more progression – always manages to get the better of them.
  • Hughie Morrison has only had four runners in the race since 200. Three of them won. That must be more than just an anomaly. Anything he runs is well-worth the onceover. Sir Michael Stoute’s horses are the other ones that absolutely demand respect and inspection. He’s run 15 horses in the races since 2002 – 4 won and another 4 placed. It’s safe to say he makes a point of targeting this race and does so effectively.
  • Once again, this being a race around the turns, Ryan Moore and William Buick show up well in the historical record. Moore’s 11 race rides produced 3 winners and 2 places (all for Sir Michael Stoute). Buick has ridden 2 winners from 8 rides.
  • The historic record in the Wolferton....

The final day of the Royal Ascot meeting (Saturday) features the Wolferton Handicap....

The race is a new edition to the roster than some of the other prestigious handicaps – it was first run as recently as 2002....

This one sees a few fewer runners go to post too. Over the last 16-years the average field size amount to under 15-runners. That’s still plenty of horses for punters to sort through, but in terms of Royal Ascot handicaps, it’s s small-field!

The race is an event run over the right-handed 10-furlongs for horses aged 3yo+ and officially rated 0 to 100....

The 2017 prize fund amount to £80k. Winning connections took home £45k of that....

Three winning favourites over the 16-year-period seems to be the average for these races, and the Wolferton is another that conforms. Three top-of-the-market participants have obliged. Another three editions were won by horses sent off 2nd or 3rd in the betting.

The average winning SP amounts to just over 10s. There’s encouragement for punters of all types....

  • The strongest themes....

Prior to sorting through the runners and seeking to split the field, it will pay to take note of the strongest themes that have run through the race since 2002....

  • Twelve of the 16 editions to date were won by horses aged 4. Of the 37 horses to place over the period, 26 were aged 4. The younger horses – still progressing and physically developing – are the percentage play.
  • Sprinters can take a lot of racing. Trainers can turn them round quickly. But over a trip like this, a hard race can leave a mark on a horse. Rest is key for middle-distance performers. That’s reflected in the historical statistical record for this race. Fifteen of the 16 had been off the track for at least 3-weeks. Ten had been off for 5-weeks or longer.
  • Class has tended to out. Twelve of the 16 winners were rated 100+. Eight of the winners were out of the top 6 in the handicap – wearing saddlecloth numbers 1 to 6. Fourteen winners carried 8-11 or more.
  • Winners of this race tend to be in the habit of winning. Twelve of the last 16 winners had already won at least three races.
  • John Gosden runners must be respected. His last 10 participants produced 3 wins and 2 places. Sir Michael Stoute is another serial target of the race. His last 13 runners produced 2 winners and 5 places. Mark Johnston has produced a winner and 4 places from his last 14 runners.
  • As always on the round track at Ascot, Ryan Moore and William Buick are an advantage to a good horse. Moore’s last 12 rides produced 2 wins and 2 places. Buick has ridden 8 – winning on 2 and placing on another.
  • The last word….

That’s all from me for today.

I’ll be back tomorrow when we’ll finalise this short series of articles with a look at the Wokingham....

Until then. Stay tuned.

Nick Pullen

Against the Crowd