Field-splitters for the Wokingham....

Last Updated: 13.06.2018

Wednesday, 13th June 2018

Field-splitters for the Wokingham….

Last week and this week, we’ve invested a bit of time looking at the previous renewals of the big handicaps we’ll be targeting at next week’s Royal Ascot meeting....

It can sometimes seem a little tedious going over the stats. But there is a payoff....

Next week, when you come to confront races with 20-odd horses going to post, you might well appreciate being in possession of pointers that draw your attention to some horses and steer you away from others....

Of course, the stats are just stats. In the end it all boils down to the individual horses. But facts are facts and what has happened before is the best guide we have as to what might happen again in the future....

No one stat will always lead directly to a winner. But the stats do help us take an informed view of a race. And that’s an edge in itself....

Most of the folk you are betting against in the markets are not informed. Most are basically following the money, taking a stab in the dark or guessing and hoping to get lucky....

So, in the interests of taking an informed view, today we conclude our series of Royal Ascot handicap articles with a look at what the historic record can tell us about the Wokingham Stakes....

  • Key stats across 16-years....

The Wokingham Stakes is the last handicap of the Royal meeting – and it’s a cracker to finish off with.

There’s plenty of history to the race too. I like that. To think that punters were trying to figure the race out before I was even thought of. The race was first run in 1813. They used to run it as three separate divisions. It was run as one race for the first time in 1874 – before my Great Grandmother was even born.

This is a class 2 event up the straight 6f for horses aged 3yo+ and officially rated 0 to 110. Expect a big field. 25+ runners have gone to post 15 out of the last 16 years....

Just a note: we had dead-heat winners of this race in 2003. I class both Fayr Jag and Ratio as winners. So, for this race we talk about 17 winners even though there have only been 16 editions of the race since 2002....

Once again, the favourites have managed to win 3 of the 16 editions under review. Five more winners over the period were sent off in 2nd or 3rd sport in the betting. The average winning SP amounts to 13/1. Of the 47 horses to place over the period, 24 were sent off at 16s or bigger. Plenty for each-way players to shoot at....

A massive-field sprint handicap will turn a lot of punters’ spines to jelly. But here at ATC we thrive on such fare. Ahead of dividing the runners into probables, possibles and no-hopers we look at the key features in the historical record....

  • Fourteen of the 17 winners since 2002 were aged 4- or 5-years old....
  • Thirteen had raced between 9 and 24 times on the flat turf....
  • Five of the last six winners were officially rated 100+...
  • Twelve of the last 17 winners carried a double-figure saddlecloth number to post. They were down the weights....
  • Frankie Dettori knows how to ride the race. His last 13 rides produced a winner, 4 places and an additional three horses that finished 6th or 7th.
  • Jamie Spencer’s last 13 rides produced a winner, a place, three 5th placed finishes and a 7th. That’s a fair record in a race that’s like two big handicaps all rolled into one.
  • Another big betting event….

Royal Ascot isn’t the only big betting event on the immediate horizon....

The 2018 FIFA World Cup gets underway in Russia on Thursday – and there is no shortage of value betting opportunities to take advantage of there....

Racing is my game. One man can’t be an expert in every discipline and when it comes to my football bets, I tend to turn to people who know what they’re talking about and have all the right kinds of information and data to work with....

  • The smart way to make money at the World Cup…

My colleague Oliver Upstone has been busy putting together a dedicated, World Cup 2018 daily betting service. Oliver is a stats man. And he’ll be guiding members to ways to cash-in on a whole range of little-known markets such as Goals, Corners and Cards.

For example, not many people know that:

  • England have won the Most Corners in 22 of their last 23 games…
  • Over 2.5 Goals bets paid out in 80% of Belgium games in Qualifying…
  • Opponents got the Most Cards in 90% of Poland games…
  • Under 3.5 Cards bets paid out in 80% of Iran games…
  • Time of First Goal – After 27th Minute bets paid out in 83% of Nigeria games…

You can get instant access to moneymaking stats like these for all 32 nations right now. And that’s just one part of the service. Join up today and you’ll get DAILY advice by email, for every match-day, starting with Russia v Saudi Arabia tomorrow...

Plus – the first tournament picks are waiting for you right now and include 11/1 and 16/1 shots that need to backed before the World Cup kicks off...

Book your place on the World Cup 2018 daily service today >>

  • The last word….

That’s all from me for today.

I’ll be back on Friday with my contrarian take on the weekend action....

Until then. Stay tuned.

Nick Pullen

Against the Crowd