Thursday, 11th October 2018
Big-priced winners from smaller yards at big meetings are frequently understood by the market as fluke occurrences....
SOTO SIZZLER’S win at 20s at the Glorious Goodwood meeting in August was no fluke though....
The Mastercraftsman gelding ridded himself of his maiden tag in good style that afternoon. His win was totally deserved and achieved totally on merit. Nothing was given to him. Nothing came served up on a plate....
He was the only horse in the race to come off the pace and at the end of the race he was going away from the rest. It was a dominant performance....
For sure, he was getting weight. But it was a decent effort off a mark of 79 nevertheless. And the handicapper’s decision to put him up 6lbs for the win was not an over-reaction....
Next time up at the beginning of September Soto Sizzler was on the wrong end of a 20-length drubbing at Haydock Park....
But you can forget that run. The ground was heavy, and the horse was trying 14f for the first time.
It’s a trip he’s expected to get no problem when he’s physically mature. But at this stage of his development and on heavy Haydock ground, the extra couple of furlongs just found him out....
Tomorrow he’s back to the 1f trip on better ground and I think he can out-run the general 12s about him this afternoon....
He’s seen very much at home as a horse worth looking out for next term. He’s a big lad and William Knight, his trainer, feels he will be at his best with another winter under his belt....
But that’s not to say that this season is over with. They haven’t over-raced him. He’s been given good time between his races and there’s no reason why he can’t continue building on his progress tomorrow....
There are quite a few unexposed types lining up for this race tomorrow. Several of those are toward the top of the betting. Of those that aren’t. I think William Knight’s horse is the one that could prove quite a bit better than the market believes....
The Contrarian Bet Box….To recap on where my contrarian money will be going tomorrow afternoon…. In the Old Rowley Cup Handicap (4.10 @ Newmarket).
That is my take on where the value lies – but you will no doubt have your own ideas and that’s exactly as it should be. |
That’s all from me for today....
I’ll be back in your inbox tomorrow with my contrarian take on the weekend racing....
Until then. Stay tuned.
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