The contrarian perspective this weekend....

Last Updated: 11.01.2019

Friday, 11th January 2019

The contrarian perspective this weekend….

A shortage of the wet stuff over the last few weeks has left the track at Warwick riding a little quicker than ideal for many horses you’d expect to be coming into their own at this time of the season....

Some of those will have stayed away from tomorrow afternoon’s Classic Handicap Chase at Warwick (3.00) as a result....

A field of 13-runners is set to go to post. And maybe there is a little hope for at least some of tomorrow’s runners that conditions will soften-up before they go to post....

The forecast is for rain tomorrow morning and into the evening....

If it falls, then some of those who like to get a bit of toe in – the likes of last year’s winner Milansbar, for example – will not be disappointed....

  • Star to shine at Warwick....

It’s another one of those tight and cautious markets with all but four of the runners available in the betting at single figure prices....

What that tells us is that the race is wide-open, the bookies don’t have a strong opinion of their own and the money is yet to offer direction....

But we don’t worry about that. We plough our own furrow here at ATC. And we go in early at the prices we like....

The one that stands out for me in this tomorrow is Neil Mulholland’s IMPULSIVE STAR at the 10s with William Hill and generally....

This lightly-raced chaser ran an absolute cracker in the 4-miler at Cheltenham in March – doing a lot of the donkey work against high-rated rivals before giving best late on but still managing to plug on to finish 4th – albeit at a distance....

He did that off 132, he goes off 133 tomorrow – and that’s mark still 6lbs shy of what he achieved over hurdles. And this horse is close to certain to be a better chaser than he was hurdler. In my book, he looks well-handicapped....

He’s only been seen once since the Festival – at Plumpton last month. I can’t imagine that was anything other than a pipe-opener to put him right for this and he ran a decent-enough race in that context....

He didn’t have his cheekpieces on. They are back tomorrow. So too is owner’s son Sam Whaley-Cohen who tends to get the leg-up for the horse’s major assignments....

He takes off a useful 3bs and will be down somewhere close to his minimum riding weight for this....

This 9yo will be carrying less weight than he has ever done before. The trip suits. I think the track will suit his style too and I expect him to try and do it from the front....

The Contrarian Bet Box….

To recap on where my contrarian money will be going tomorrow afternoon….

In the Classic Handicap Chase (3.00 @ Warwick).

  • Nick’s Contrarian Picks – IMPULSIVE STAR (10s @ William Hill & generally)

That is my take on where the value lies – but you will no doubt have your own ideas and that’s exactly as it should be.

  • The last word….

That’s all from me for now.

I’ll be back later today with ATC Extra and a tilt at the Lanzarote down at Kempton....

Win, lose or draw – enjoy the racing tomorrow afternoon....

Until next time. Stay tuned.

Nick Pullen

Against the Crowd