Thursday, 14th March 2019
How quickly the week passes. We are already into the selections for Friday – the last day of the Festival....
But part of that is because we are early-birds here at ATC. We like to get first crack at the prices – so we go up with our race-day selections ahead of almost everybody else....
We’re yet to see how Day 3 pans out. We’ve got that to look forward to this afternoon. In case you missed our advice for today’s handicap races – there are three of them to shoot at – you can catch up here....
Day 4 is another busy day for us with three more big handicaps to target....
There’s the County Hurdle at 2.10 over the 2-mile trip....
At 4.50 we’ve got the Grand Annual over the 2-mile trip and 14 fences....
Then at 5.30 – and closing the Festival for the first time – we have the Martin Pipe Handicap Hurdle over the extended 2m4f trip....
So, plenty to be getting on with this morning....
Trainer Philip Hobbs is probably justified if he feels he’s been unlucky not to do better in the County over the years....
He won it in 2002 with Rooster Booster but since then he has had to endure nine of his horses hitting the frame – five of those under Richard Johnson....
His luck – and Johnson’s – could change tomorrow with CROOKS PARK....
The 6yo made it three on the bounce over hurdles on handicap debut at Newbury earlier this month off an opening mark of 133 – and he looks plenty better than that....
He carries a 5lb penalty for that win tomorrow. But even taking that into account, he looks like a participant with plenty in hand on the handicapper and rates a fair bet at the general 14s....
The other one I like is the Willie-Mullins trained MR ADJUDICATOR at 14s....
The yard has a cracking record in this race – almost always showing up with one horse or another at the business end of proceedings....
This one looks a likely type. It’s got Festival form – 2nd in last season’s Triumph Hurdle. And I get the impression the horse has been saved for this....
It’s not been seen for 125-days. But Mullins is a master at getting his hurdlers ready to go well off a break and he’s already shown he can do it with this one. I expect a big run....
BUN DORAN has been specifically prepared for this race and will contest it for Tom George off the back of a 90-day break....
But I’m not concerned about that. The horse has a record of going well fresh and can be relied upon to turn out and run his race first-time-up....
This is a horse that appreciates the Cheltenham track. He’s got plenty of form at the place – not least in November when he ran out a convincing winner of a small field handicap over 2-miles on the Old course....
He’s up 10lbs in the weights for that effort and that will put some people off. They’ll look at his next time out effort and say he was well-held on his new mark....
Fair enough, but he’s often better first-time-up than second time. And I reckon he could be a much better horse than he was and that he could still be going forward....
Back in November Tom George reported that the horse – he’s a big unit – had strengthened up over the summer. And George also reported that his team had finally worked the horse out. In other words, there could be more to come yet....
He’s a quick horse – you need to be for this. And he also likes to race up with the pace – something else I like for the Grand Annual. He’s a nice bet at the general 20s....
The other one I like is Henry De Bromhead’s MINDS EYE at 12s. He is totally unexposed and ran a nice trial for this on his handicap debut over fences at Leopardstown – having failed to cut it at G1 novice level....
He shaped that day like he would appreciate a stiffer test at the trip and he will get that tomorrow afternoon....
This is a race for the conditional jockeys and for me it is a contest as much about the rider as it is about the horse....
There are some decent conditional riders in the race and there are others who will be arriving with little in the way of confidence – having produced few winners over the last few months....
Of course, this is an opportunity for any young rider to make his mark and put himself on the radar. On the right horse, any jockey can have his day....
But my preference is to trust to the better riders. The likelihood is that they will be on the better horses and that their greater ability will give them the edge as the race unfolds....
One of the top riders in the race is without doubt Bryony Frost who has already broken through into the senior rank of riders and produced big wins on horses ridden for Paul Nicholls and other patrons....
It is Nicholls who provides her ride in this tomorrow with IF YOU SAY RUN. And I think the general 20s about the horse totally underestimates its chances....
Not only is Frost one of the more skilled and experienced riders taking part. But Nicholls frequently comes up with a good one for his conditionals in this race. His last 18 participants produced a brace of wins, four places and two more top 6 finishes – and plenty of those were sent off at prices....
This will be one of the better opportunities Frost has this week of landing a Festival winner. You can be sure she’s hungry to do just that. And you can be sure Nicholls will be giving her the best chance possible. In that context, the price is very attractive....
The Contrarian Bet Box….To recap on where my contrarian money will be going tomorrow afternoon…. In the County Hurdle (2.10 @ Cheltenham).
In the Grand Annual (4.50 @ Cheltenham).
In the Martin Pipe (5.30 @ Cheltenham).
That is my take on where the value lies – but you will no doubt have your own ideas and that’s exactly as it should be. |
That’s all from me for now.
I’ll be back tomorrow with my contrarian take on the weekend action....
Win, lose or draw – enjoy the racing this afternoon....
Until next time. Stay tuned.
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