Bad news from West Sussex....

Last Updated: 21.03.2019

Thursday, 21st March 2019

Bad news from West Sussex….

I got a bit of bad news yesterday....

Traffic Fluide was one of 16 horses pulled out of the Grand National at the latest forfeit stage....

You might recall I put him up for the race at 50s back in November....

The race was his stated seasonal target. His whole campaign was to revolve around the race. But now, he won’t be running....

Earlier this week, trainer Gary Moore was talking about getting the horse out onto the South Downs gallops and then running him over hurdles at Newbury on Friday in a bid to get him spot-on for the big one....

But in-between-times calamity has struck and the horse won’t be going to Liverpool. Here’s Gary Moore....

‘He just had a setback. You can't go there 99%, you’ve got to go there 110%. We won’t run him this year and hopefully get him right for next year. It’s a sickener for me, the staff and the owner. We were very much looking forward to it.’

So was I. I’d built up quite a position on the horse since November....

Now it’s just money down the drain. But that’s one of the perils of ante-post punting. Anything can happen to send your bets down the pan. And it often does. There’s no point crying about it though....

Maybe next year....

  • Didero Vallis....

Back to the subject I got started on yesterday – and what might turn out to be a case of backing the right horses on the wrong day.... 

Venetia Williams’s Didero Vallis was another horse we backed at last week’s Festival who gave a solid account of himself – without being quite good enough on the day to land a return for on-the-nose backers....

He was 5th of 22 in the Brown Plate – beaten just over 11-lengths – having raced prominently and jumped great....

It was a decent effort from horse running in what was just his 5th go over fences....

And next time around he will race off  a mark a pound lower than he went to post on at Cheltenham after reassessment by the official handicapper. That drop is something I would see as a bonus if I were part of the team behind the horse....

Okay, he got a little left behind by some of the other younger horses at the business-end of the race. He was a bit one-paced when they were driving on....

But I have no doubt this horse will prove good enough to land a decent handicap pot over a middle-distance trip off his current mark. 3-miles has proved too far for him – at least for now. But he’s still a young chaser and might get the longer trip in time once he is completely matured and strengthened-up....

I don’t think he will be landing that decent pot this season though....

His profile marks him out as a predominantly winter horse – all his productive career-to-date work has been done in December – who wants soft ground....

I’m not sure he’s going to see too much genuine soft ground now that we’re into the spring. But he’s certainly one to take note of and to look out for next season when he’ll have another summer on his back. I expect him to be a better horse still....

In case you missed it....

Course walks have been made mandatory at Aintree for jockeys who have little or no experience over the big Grand National fences....

The hope is that the measure will contribute to the safety of all race participants. And the jockeys will be accompanied on the walks by a British Racing Authority jockey coach....

Read all about it here....

I’m not surprised the walks are available to jockeys. I’d be surprised if they weren’t. Racing authorities are conscious right now of public concerns about the safety of racing – particularly for its equine participants....

But what does surprise me is that the walks have had to be made mandatory. It suggests jockeys have not been taking such walks voluntarily. It suggests some jockeys might not be trusted not to go out and attack the formidable fences in a big-field race without going out and having a look at them beforehand....

If that’s the case, and if it is a well-founded one, then it is psychiatric help that those jockeys require rather than mere regulations....

  • In the interests of fairness....

The British official handicapper likes to allot Irish horses a rating at the Festival – rather than take their Irish rating at face value....

It’s something that doesn’t go down well because the British handicapper’s view of what mark Irish horses should be raced off in Britain is frequently at odds with the Irish handicapper’s view of what they race off in Ireland.

The British handicapper often rates the Irish horses higher than they are rated at home.....

‘Foul!’ cry the Irish contingent....

‘Our horses are being discriminated against!’

‘Our horses are being unfairly penalised and asked to carry more weight against the British horses than is fair....’

Some Irish owners pulled their horses out of last week’s Festival – so unfairly did they believe their horses were treated....

Conspiracy theorists amongst them might say the fix is in. But what do the results of last week tell us?

Well, the Irish won the Kim Muir. They dominated the Pertemps Final – fielding each of the first four home. Irish horses filled the first three places in the Martin Pipe. They got places in the County Hurdle and the Coral Cup....

They probably hoped for better. They probably expected more. But when will that not be the case?

All in all, in the races for the older handicappers, the Irish horses gave a good account of themselves. They more than held their own. I’m not sure the Irish can have too many complaints about their horses being unfairly weighted....

They certainly have nothing to complain about when it comes to the two handicap events for the younger horses – the Close Brothers Novice Chase on Day 1 and the Fred Winter on Day 2. Irish horses filled the first three spots in both races....

Of course, the younger Irish horses could be and probably are just that much better than their British counterparts....

But, in the interests of fairness, perhaps next year the British handicapper will give serious consideration to revising the mark of the next generation of Irish youngsters a bit further upwards!

In the interest of fairness, surely the Irish would be the first to throw their most vocal support behind this idea?

  • In the mailbag this morning….

In the mailbag this morning, GB makes a good point that bears sharing....

‘Yes, Cheltenham not so good for me either but the odds of most of the winners were not what we're about. 17 winners at 9/1 or less seems unusual although I don't have the stats of previous Cheltenham festivals to see if that was higher than normal. 4 winners at 33/1+ which just leaves 7 in our usual fertile ground of 10-25/1....’

I can confirm that last week’s Festival did have a higher-proportion of shorter-priced winners than is usual....

Meanwhile DH writes in to say this....

‘After being part of the service just before last year’s festival, I went 1pt each way with all but one of your tips. With the extra places offered and bet boosts available, I came away with a small loss and as you’ve mentioned in previous emails, only one win away from a successful Cheltenham. Your stats and trends you sent out prior to the festival also made for a bit of fun in the fantasy Cheltenham league and any that I thought were of value had a small stake on. Personally, that was the most enjoyable festival I watched due to the info you provided, so thank you for that.’

Those are kind comments. Certainly, more than I deserve....

But the main point here is that DH’s experiences serve to highlight that going your own way, betting our contrarian selections the way you think best and seeking out the best-value about every bet you strike can improve markedly on my bare-bones performance....

What I say and do is the not the be-all and end-all. You have something to bring to the table too....

Something to say? I am always at the end of the email machine for anybody who wishes to get in touch with queries, thoughts, observations, insights, angles, tips, whispers or general good advice on racing and life. You can catch up with me right here....

  • The last word….

That’s all from me for today....

I’ll be back tomorrow....

Until then. Stay tuned.

Nick Pullen

Against the Crowd