31st March 2017
In this week’s issue….
We get a break from the jumps this weekend. We head to Doncaster for the first fixture of the new flat season. And we’re straight into the thick of it….
I’m targeting the value in the Spring Mile (2.25). A field of 22 goes to post on ground described as good to soft this morning….
It’s not an easy puzzle to solve first-time-up. There’s no form in the book….
We don’t know much about where individual yards and trainers are with their respective strings. We don’t know how forward or behind they are. We don’t know which horses will need a run or which might hit the ground running….
We don’t know how last classic generation have trained on. We know little about modifications specific yards might have made to their training programmes or infrastructure at the yard – and how those improvements will turn out.
In short, there’s a lot we don’t know. But the bookies and the rest of the market are working without a lot of certain facts too.
That’s an environment in which mistakes can easily be made. Horses can be over-bet. Horses can be underestimated. Important details can be easily overlooked.
We must trust in our game and endeavor to prosper. And we’ll get to my selection in a moment. First, something to help you with next week’s Grand National at Aintree….
I have a pretty good record in the Grand National….
I know some of you were with me back in 2013 when I tipped-up Auroras Encore the night before the race at 80s.
And some of you would have been with me the year afterwards when we got Pineau De Re over the line in first place – having been advised at 25s.
Both these wins made up for the agony of Sunnyhillboy being beaten a nose – run down on the line by Neptune Collonges – in the 2012 edition of the race having been advised at 25s the night before racing.
I haven’t managed to find the winner in more recent times. But I expect I’ll be back in the winning enclosure before too long. Hopefully a week tomorrow when this season’s renewal is run at Aintree….
I recently put some of my Grand National thoughts down in a report – outlining some of the angles I’ll be pursuing and some of the things I’ll be looking for this time round.
You might find this report a helpful aide when you come to look at next week’s runners and riders. You can download my free report completely free of charge. Think of it as a small thank-you for sticking with ATC Extra.
This time last year Brian Meehan’s MUTARAKEZ was a rated a smart 3yo prospect occupying a mark of 101 and going into the Lincoln a fancied 7/1 shot on his first start after being gelded.
It didn’t pan out that day. The horse finished down the field and we didn’t see him again until the autumn when he put in a couple of disappointing efforts at Ascot and on the all-weather – with his trainer conducting headgear experiments.
It is fair to say that his 3yo season did not build on the promise of his juvenile exploits. He’d been seen as a Group winner in waiting. But it didn’t happen. Nothing went right last season.
But there are always consequences. And because of last season’s problems, Mutarakez has dropped down the ratings to a mark of 91. And that’s a mark that could underestimate him.
Last season he went into the Lincoln without a prep run. This season’s he’s already had a pipe-opener on the all-weather and, whilst he didn’t trouble the scorers, he showed sufficient to suggest last term’s issues – whatever they were – are behind him. It was a run that smacked of promise rather than problems. His first for a while.
He put in a nice effort and his new mark gives him plenty of margin if he’s back to form. There’s a few, ifs buts and maybes about this selection. But you need margin in hand to win these big handicaps and Mutarakez is one potentially well-treated horse and the general 14s appeals as an each-way price.
Standard place terms are 1/4 1-2-3-4. Some bookies might go up with the 5th place. But you’ll have to wait for that and you may miss the best prices. Your call.
Over on my paid ATC service I’m targeting tomorrow’s Lincoln. I’ve put up an improving horse with a couple of real edges in his favor – at a nice price too….
You can get that extra bet right now by taking a FREE 14-day test drive of ATC.
Sign-up today and you’ll be on-board for my service at next week’s Grand National meeting at Aintree – which starts on Thursday and runs through to Saturday. We’ll be smashing into the handicaps….
That’s all from me this week. Enjoy your weekend.
P.S. Don’t forget to download my free report containing Grand National angles and analysis. It’s completely free. No strings. You get instant access. No form to fill in. Just straight to the PDF. Get your copy here.