Where my contrarian money is going tomorrow....

Last Updated: 14.04.2017

Friday, 14th April 2017

Where my contrarian money is going tomorrow….

It is Good Friday and the beginning of a long weekend – a welcome break from the regular treadmill. Just a pity about the weather….

I am quite sure we all have plenty going on. So, I’ll cut the preamble and get straight down to business today. No messing about….

Haydock is the focus tomorrow where they run multiple finals of the Challenger series of handicaps….

In the Middle-Distance Series Final Handicap Chase (2.05) I’m supporting CAPTAIN REDBEARD each-way at the general 16s….

There are, as you’d expect, plenty with chances in this but I think the price about the 8yo is a bit of an over-reaction to what was, on the face of it at least, a disappointing appearance in the novice handicap at the Festival last month.

Until that point this first-season chaser had been progressing nicely – displaying a real talent for fencing. He’d produced a couple of wins at Wetherby and at tomorrow’s venue and had earned a mark of 139.

He deserved to take his chance at Cheltenham but on the day things didn’t go to plan. He was well-beaten and tailed-off when pulled-up before 3-out.

In the aftermath, connections refused to blame the horse. The general impression given was that the trainer’s son – 5lb claimer Sam Coltherd – had got things wrong. Up against the top boys on a track he didn’t know, he’d got the ride wrong. The Coltherds see that Festival experience as a learning exercise – and fair enough.

I’m not sure what, if anything, the horse would have learnt. But one bad race and one disappointing experience hasn’t altered the fact that he’s potentially better than his current mark.

And I think he’s better than his price – which I don’t think we’d be getting if he wasn’t running out of a small yard on the Scottish borders. He can bounce back tomorrow and put in a big run at a double-figure quote.

The Contrarian Bet Box….

To recap on where my contrarian money will be going at Haydock tomorrow….

In the Middle-Distance Series Final Handicap Chase (2.05 @ Haydock)....

  • Nick’s Contrarian Picks – CAPTAIN REDBEARD each-way (16s generally)

That is my take on where the value lies – but you will no doubt have your own ideas and that’s exactly as it should be.

  • The last word….

That’s all from me for now.

I’ll be back a little later today with ATC Extra.

I’ll be back in your inbox on Sunday afternoon with my take on Monday’s Irish Grand National at Fairyhouse.

Until then. Enjoy the Easter weekend.

Nick Pullen

Against the Crowd