26th May 2017
In this week’s issue….
We head down to Goodwood tomorrow for this week’s target race – the romantically titled Winners Are Welcome At Matchbet Handicap (3.10)….
It’s a class 2 event for 3yo horses over the right-handed 7f trip – the low numbered stalls have the advantage. The high-drawn horses often must race wide – having to cover more ground than those on the inside.
The going is currently described as good. There’s rain forecast up and down the country tomorrow morning and into the afternoon – but reports differ about how much and how sustained that rain will be. Some weather-forecasting services reckon the south coast will miss the rain completely.
I don’t know what to make of it. But I’m going to work on the principle that if rain falls, it isn’t going to be a Noah’s Ark job. And Goodwood – sitting on the top of the chalk South Downs – takes rain well in any case….
There’s only been four editions of this race to date – so the stats as they stand don’t offer much in the way of pointers to hang your hat on.
The market offers its own version of pointers. And Hooroob is the one the market wants to be with – backing it into 7/2 in places.
That one won on handicap debut last time off 86 on the all-weather. He’s up to 90 and Roger Varian has opted to put a 7lb claimer onboard.
It certainly won’t be straightforward from stall 12 on just his second turf appearance. I’m not saying he can’t or won’t win – just that I wouldn’t be backing him at 7/2.
David Simcock’s handicappers are showing up well over the last 10-days or so and his Bless Him is another popular horse in the market – in at 6s.
He’ll benefit from a better draw than the favourite – coming out of stall 4. He didn’t settle last time under Jamie Spencer and looked like he wanted a quicker pace than he got at Doncaster.
He drops back to 7f tomorrow, so that will help him. But Spencer won’t be present. 3lb claimer Aaron Jones takes the ride for the first time.
Mark Johnstone likes a winner at Goodwood. He certainly produces them in fair volume. Aardwolf is the pick of his trio as far as the market is concerned. Joe Fanning in the saddle is the signal the market sees flashing – but he’s another who will have to do it out of a double-figure stall….
We’ll get to my selections for tomorrow’s race in a moment. First, a word on my other best tomorrow….
We had a nice winner last week in the shape of Withernsea. I hope you were on.
Over on my paid ATC service we also backed a winner at 10s at Newbury and a placer at 8s – following on from a winner earlier in the week at York at 16s. We go again tomorrow over on ATC.
The bookies are playing it cautious in the Temple Stakes – but I’ve uncovered the value down the market….
And at York in the Unibet Sprint Stakes, I smell a plot – at a big price.
You can get immediate access to these extra bets on the website when you take a FREE 14-day test drive of my Against the Crowd service….
The market sees Aardwolf as Mark Johnston’s live one in tomorrow’s feature handicap at Goodwood. But I prefer the claims of SUTTER COUNTY at a handy each-way price of 14s.
He’s already rated 103. But I’m not sure that rating puts the lid on him. He’s earned that mark in races run over 5f and 6f – but has been looking very much like a horse that wants a bit further.
He’s gone over 7f on the all-weather – where he ran well. On turf, he’s completely unexposed at the trip and he can improve for it.
He gets a good draw in stall 3 and the thing that really catches my eye is the booking of Andrea Atzeni. Hooroob’s loss can be Stutter County’s gain.
Atzeni rides Goodwood effectively and he’s in great form right now. Neither fact will be lost on Johnston. He hasn’t booked Atzeni much. Just 5 times since the start of the 2013 season. They haven’t won in combination yet. Both will want to put that right. And tomorrow, on a track both understand so well, they have a great opportunity.
I wouldn’t be at all surprised to see this horse break fast and for Atzeni to make all at his own pace – or be very close to the pace if others want to go there. They’ve got the draw to get the job done and the 14s is a nice each-way price.
SUTTER COUNTY @ 14s (Generally)
The standard place terms are 1/4 1-2-3. I’ll be backing Stutter County each-way.
That’s all from me this week. Enjoy your weekend.