9th June 2017
In this week’s issue….
We head to Haydock Park for tomorrow afternoon’s target race – the Betway Dash Handicap (2.55)….
It’s a class 3 event for horses aged 4yo+ over the straight 6f trip. A field of 13-runners looks set to go to post.
The ground is described as soft this afternoon. With quite a bit of rain forecast to fall tomorrow morning and into the afternoon, conditions could be pretty testing by the time they go to post….
Tony Coyle’s Snap Shots heads the market at 9/2. He’s being turned around quickly. He ran at Ripon on Wednesday night where he was 2nd behind course specialist Pipers Note.
Fair play. That was just his third run for Coyle and his best yet. A bit of cut appears to be okay for him. But on soft ground that is going to get softer, I reckon he’s vulnerable.
Major Pusey is another market fancy at 6s. He’s the single last-time-out winner in tomorrow’s field – having scored at Windsor at the end of last month.
He’s gone up 6lb for that success and is now rated 82. But he’s won before off 81 on soft ground – albeit over the 5f trip. The combination of real soft ground and the 6f trip is perhaps the worry for his supporters.
Handsome Dude has plenty of support at 11/2. He ran a cracker at Thirsk last time on soft – a performance the official handicapper stuck him up just a pound for.
The form of that race is looking pretty good. The winner ran a fine race off 95 at Epsom last week. Several other horses have come out and performed with credit.
Of the top dogs, Handsome Dude is the one I like best. But all the shorties are off-limits for me. At Against the Crowd we play the prices. Our job is to find the horse the market is overlooking….
We’ll get to my selection for tomorrow’s race in a moment. First a quick word on my main bet of the day tomorrow….
We had the Derby meeting last weekend at Epsom. We’ve got Royal Ascot the week after next.
There must be the odd lull in-between-times and that’s where we find ourselves this weekend. There’s no out-and-out top meeting to feast on. There’s no out-and-out top race to get our teeth into.
But there is a good handicap down at Newmarket over 14-furlongs and I’m supporting two good horses against-the-field at double-figure prices….
You can get immediate access to these extra bets on the website when you take a FREE 14-day test drive of my Against the Crowd service….
TAEXALI is on a long losing run. He’s raced 23 times under rules and only managed to win once.
You might look at him as a dodge-pot but he went very close at Chester last month and at the prices – you can get him at 16s – I’m prepared to bet that tomorrow could be the big day….
In that Chester race, John Patrick Shanahan’s charge was beaten by the very speedy El Astronaute over 5f. The winner had the race won from the turn. But Taexali was closing all the way up the straight and was only narrowly beaten at the death.
El Astronaute was quite well fancied after that race for the Epsom Dash. Taexali went back to Chester for another race – where he was trapped wide. And then he went to York for a valuable 5f handicap – where he was staying on from a long way back at the end….
The handicapper has dropped the horse to 93. And tomorrow Shanahan rolls the dice. Taexali is stepped back up to the 6f trip, the blinkers are removed for the first time this year and the in-form and highly-regarded Clifford Lee comes in for the ride – taking off a useful 5lbs.
It’s a while now since the 4yo has raced on soft ground. All years he’s been running on good to firmer. But he proved last year at Hamilton that he handles a softer surface and tomorrow’s underfoot conditions – in combination with a trip at which he remains pretty-much unexposed (he’s only raced 4 times over the 6f trip) – could well be the key to a much-improved performance and that elusive long-awaited win.
At any rate, I think at 16s is a nice each-way price about a horse whose done a lot of his racing in conditions and pattern races and should be good enough to take a handicap at some point off a mark of 93.
TAEXALI @ 16s (Generally)
The standard place terms are 1/4 1-2-3. I’ll be going in each-way.
That’s all from me this week. Enjoy your weekend.