7th July 2017
In this week’s issue….
We’re up at Haydock tomorrow afternoon for our target race – the Old Newton Cup (3.15)….
This is a class 2 handicap over the 12f trip for horses aged 4yo+. A field of 17-runners goes to post on ground currently described as good to firm. There is a bit of rain forecast this evening – but nothing too heavy….
Marco Botti’s Dylan Mouth heads the weights on his mark of 104. Down at the bottom Andrew Balding’s Brorocco carries 8-10 off his mark of 90. There’s a stone between the lot of them.
The field contains five last-time-out winners but no really big movers in the weights. Michael Appleby’s Big Country is the one out of that group most fancied by the market….
He’s a 4yo. The 4yos have an excellent record in this event – winning 11 of the last 15 renewals. And the market isn’t blind to the fact. Five of the top six in the betting fall into that age-group.
Sir Michael Stoute’s Shraaoh is the most-fancied of them all. He’s been backed into 4s and shorter 24-hours ahead of the off….
He ran well enough on his return to action at Epsom last month. He disappointed fav-backers with his 3rd place finish but he wasn’t uncompetitive and probably need the run.
With that outing under his belt he’s entitled to come on and punters who took the 5/4 at Epsom will be hopeful of banking some compensation.
The money has been landing for him all week. He’s lightly-raced and expected to progress. Fair enough.
But in my book, he’s shot enough in a big-field affair for a horse that has only managed to win one of his 7 starts to date.
He’s disappointed three times at a short price. I am happy to look elsewhere. We’ll get to my selections for tomorrow’s race in a moment….
First a quick word on my take on the action down at Sandown….
There are a couple of nice races supporting the G1 Coral Eclipse Stakes on the Sandown card tomorrow….
In the G3 Coral Charge over the 5f trip, I’m deserting one of my favourite horses currently in training on account of his price. Instead, I’m supporting a talented and rejuvenated sprinter at a big price….
The Coral Challenge is a competitive big-field heat and there are plenty in with chances. I’m backing an under-estimated horse who might just be unexposed at the mile trip on turf….
You can get immediate access to these extra bets on the website when you take a FREE 14-day test drive of my Against the Crowd service….
TOULSON is the one I like at the prices. You can back him at a general 20s and I reckon that’s a fair each-way price about a horse primed to produce a big performance.
Aged 4 and rated just 90, he’s exactly the right kind of horse for this event – and he shows up on the crest of a wave.
He was gelded back in November and he hasn’t looked back – winning both times he’s been seen this term. First time at Nottingham over 10f, he won like a horse that will relish this step-up to the mile-and-a-half trip.
Next time at Windsor, he wasn’t quite so convincing. But he did what he needed to do and he did on ground that would not have been ideal for him.
He’ll need more to win an Old Newton Cup but having raced just 7 times and having won 3 of his last 4, Eve Johnson Houghton’s charge should be able to find it. He’s improved 12lbs since May in the handicapper’s view and he’ll likely be better than 90 in time.
He won off a 6-week break last season and if the break he’s had since Windsor has done him a similar service he should be raring to go tomorrow. The yard is going well enough right now and the ground will be right for him.
I like the 20s. I think it will look a big price in hindsight. And with the bookies paying the 4th place, it’s a nice-enough each-way price.
TOULSON @ 20s (Generally)
The standard place terms are 1/4 1-2-3-4. I’ll be playing each-way.
That’s all from me this week. Enjoy your weekend.