21st July 2017
In this week’s issue….
At this time of year winter seems a long time ago and a long way ahead of us….
But the jumps game makes a brief reappearance on our radar screen tomorrow in the shape of the Summer Plate at Market Rasen (3.20)….
A field of 16 runners go at it over the 20f trip and 14 obstacles on ground currently described as good….
It’s a highly-competitive listed-class handicap event worth the best part of £30k to winning connections. That’s good money in the middle of summer for the jumps yards. This is a race that represents a serious target over the summer….
The bookies are doing what they always do when they haven’t really got the first clue – herding together like old women in a thunderstorm and quaking in their fur-lined booties. You can back 75% of the field at 12s or shorter….
They can’t even agree on the one to shorten-up for the chronically-afflicted fav-backing brigade. Alcala, Poker School and Days Of Heaven are all vying for that particular honor at quotes between 7s and 8s.
Even the three rags in the field are no bigger than 20s with most of the firms. This is what you’re up against – caution verges on spinelessness….
You could probably make the case that the shape of the market dictates the race be left along. And I would get where you’re coming from. But I do like one horse in the race as a bet at the prices….
We’ll get to my selection in just a moment. First a quick word on the action elsewhere tomorrow afternoon….
Over on my paid ATC service, the focus tomorrow is very much on Newbury….
The Weatherbys Super Sprint Stakes is a big-field race for the juveniles up the 5f strip. It’s a tough betting heat and plenty of punters might give it the swerve. But it’s an environment in which the market can make mistakes and present value betting opportunities….
I believe I’ve found one. I’m backing one I think will improve in leaps and bounds at a nice price….
I’ve also found a bet in the G3 Hackwood Stakes over the 6f trip. I believe conditions have come right for a horse that’s been showing he can win a race at this level. And he can be backed at a decent price….
You can get immediate access to these extra bets on the website when you take a FREE 14-day test drive of my Against the Crowd service….
Jonjo O’Neill’s IT’S A GIMME won this race back in 2014. And he showed up again 2015 to defend his crown off a mark that was 11lbs higher.
He wasn’t unfancied at 11/2 and was still going well a half mile from home before not finding much under pressure.
This time round the 10yo shows up on a mark of 134 – just two pounds above the mark he won the race off in 2014. And that gives him a hell of chance.
He was well beaten in the two races he contested last term. He was well-betaen on seasonal debut this term. But last time at Stratford his run provided much more encouragement. It was a solid performance and he could be on the way back for an in-form yard that likes to target this race.
I imagine Aidan Coleman could have ridden the shorter-priced O’Neill horse – I’dliketheoption. But he takes the ride on It’s A Gimme instead and I take that as a positive.
Coleman is in cracking form right now with 10 winners from his last 18 rides. He’ll be getting on everything with the feeling it can win. And that’s no bad thing.
In short, there’s a lot to like about the horse at 14s with Skybet….
IT’S A GIMME @ 14s (Skybet)
The standard place terms are 1/4 1-2-3-4. If 14s is an each-way price for you, don’t let me put you off. Your call.
That’s all from me this week. Enjoy your weekend.
P.S. Heard the one about the guy who bought a cup of coffee from a vending machine? In his change, he found a Kew Garden 50p piece. These things are rare and sell for £100 online. There’s no punchline. It’s no joke. Some coins in circulation are worth many times face value. Discover the true value of your pocket change….