28th July 2017
In this week’s issue….
We head to York for this weekend’s target race – the Skybet Dash Handicap (2.40)….
20-runners go to post for this 6f affair on ground described this afternoon as good….
Wokingham winner Outdo heads the weights on his mark of 104. Down at the bottom El Hombre carries 8-05 – courtesy of his mark of 90 and his weight-for-age concession….
Keith Dalgleish’s 3yo is the only last-time-out winner in tomorrow’s field – he’s gone up 3lb for it. One or two or others are up two or three pounds. But there are plenty on the downgrade. Nothing comes into the race progressing at a rate of knots.
Past editions of the race can act as a guide….
It is worth noting that all the last 10 winners carried 8-12 or more…. All had raced within the previous 40 days….
Nine had finished 1st or 2nd in at least one of their last two races…. Nine had already produced a win over the 6f trip….
George Bowen is a horse I flagged up on my paid ATC service as one to follow earlier this season….
I had him down as well-handicapped and felt he might be weighted to win a decent pot at a big price. He did win – but it came in a 9k race at Nottingham and Richard Fahey’s horse was sent off at 2s.
That was two runs back. He was fancied next time at the Curragh. And he may have been a little unlucky that day owing to the draw. Whatever, he shows up tomorrow on a mark of 95 (not as well-weighted as he was) and fancied.
If he’s going to disappoint at a short price, it won’t be the first time. And his trainer is saying that he’ll have to be at his very best to win. I agree and I’m happy to look elsewhere at the prices….
Ultimate Avenue is the other one the market fancy. I like this one better. The 3yo has only had one crack at sprints – last time at Newmarket – and showed up well in what was a decent race. The first-time tongue strap appeared to play its part
Ed Walker’s horse is rated high enough at 100. But the weight for age concession is in his favor here. He’s interesting – but short enough for the interests of this column.
We’ll get to my selections for tomorrow’s race in a moment. First a word on the other race I’m targeting this weekend….
A field of 27-runners head to post for tomorrow’s International Stakes – the big 7f handicap at Ascot….
I reckon the bookies have got it well-wrong in the case of one horse they’ve put in at a big price – and I want to be with that one each-way….
And I can’t resist having a second stab at finding the winner. I’m siding with another one I expect to improve again at another big price….
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I like Rebecca Bastiman’s JAYWALKER at 20s….
This lightly-raced 6yo hasn’t been since the first week of May – when he produced the last in a sequence of spring runs that suggested he was still progressing.
He was entered in a race at Thirsk at the start of the month and was well-fancied before being withdrawn.
Bastiman produced him to win and produce a career best (at that point) off a break of 112 days back in March. And she can pull that same trick again. The yard is certainly in good heart – with each of its last three runners winning.
I prefer to go two-against-the-field rather than play for place money and my second pick is MUNTADAB at 16s.
He ran a series of cracking races in defeat earlier in the season – including one over course and distance back in May.
He was probably unlucky not to win one of those, so the fact that he’s back here again tomorrow running off the same mark of 97 is a bit of value at the weights.
The last twice he hasn’t quite been up to that level of form. He flopped in the Wokingham. And last time it turned out he was on the wrong side of the draw….
And in trying headgear – first the visor at Ascot and then the cheekpieces – connections appear to be looking to extract a bit more.
The cheekpieces are retained for tomorrow’s run. But the feature that might produce the improved performance is the presence of P J McDonald back in the saddle. He was in the plate at Doncaster and an Ripon earlier in the season when the horse doing his good work.
I can forgive the last two runs. I think the horse is better than 97. Back at York where he’s run two good races, he gets another good opportunity to prove it by finally getting his head in front. The price is good enough.
JAYWALKER @ 20s (Generally)
MUNTADAB @ 16s (Generally)
I’m going tw0-against-the-field. But don’t let me put you off playing each-way, if that’s your game. Standard place terms are 1/4 1-2-3-4.
That’s all from me this week. Enjoy your weekend.
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