Wednesday, 2nd August 2017
In years gone by it hasn’t paid to look too far down the list when looking for the winner of tomorrow’s opener at Goodwood – the Matchbook Betting Exchange Handicap (1.50).
Across the last 15 years just two winners have been sent off at SPs bigger than 9s. The top-of-the-market horses have prevailed and the market has been fully aware of which ones to put there….
It’s got a lot to do with the fact that this race is restricted to 3yos….
Where older handicappers have done a lot of their progressing, have plateaued and are bouncing around between marks they can win from and marks that restrict them, 3yos like these at this stage of the season are mostly still heading for a peak.
And those that are progressing quickest are relatively easy to spot….
At least that’s my theory. Or famous last words….
The one the market likes best is the William Haggas-trained Addeybb with Ryan Moore up….
At 11/2, he’s the clear market fancy. And fair enough. He’s won 2 of his 3 races to date – all run this term and there’s no denying he’s on the up.
But those races were run over a mile and this is over 10f. A son of Pivotal, who excels with milers, Addeybb is no certain stayer. And I think he’s a little over-priced.
One I like better is the horse he beat at Haydock in June, MUTARABBY – at 12s. He only beat the Godolphin horse a half-length. And I reckon that one is going to be a lot better-suited by tomorrow’s trip….
Watch Mutarabby’s subsequent win at Chelmsford. That was over a mile but he hit the line hard that evening – running on very strong at the finish. I’m convinced he’ll be a better horse than Addeybb at 10f and whilst he’s up 7lb for his exploits to date, he still only yields a pound to the Haggas horse tomorrow.
For me, at twice the price of the jolly he makes for a value bet.
I’m not interested in the place money at 12s and prefer to go two-against-the-field – backing both selections on a win-only basis….
The other one I like is the horse Mutarabby beat in that Chelmsford race last time – Marcus Tregoning’s MUKALAL at 14s
That one had looked in control until late on but found the winner too good. He was only beaten a half-length though….
Pretty much all his work to date has been done on the all-weather. He has something to prove on turf. It could be a potential issue. It could be the making of him. We don’t know. But one thing I do like is the step-up from a mile to 10f.
Mukalal is by Mawatheeq. That one exceled at the 10f trip. If Mukalal is a chip off the old block then he will improve for the longer trip and he’s interesting at the price from an inside draw.
The Contrarian Bet Box….
To recap on where my contrarian money will be going tomorrow afternoon….
In the Matchbook Betting Exchange Handicap (1.50 @ Goodwood)....
That is my take on where the value lies – but you will no doubt have your own ideas and that’s exactly as it should be.
That’s all from me for today.
I’ll be back tomorrow with my take on the action at Glorious Goodwood on Day 4….
Until then. Stay tuned.