Glorious Goodwood - Where my contrarian money is going on Day 5....

Last Updated: 04.08.2017

Friday, 4th August 2017

Where my contrarian money is going Day 5….

The 3yos have won the last two editions of the Stewards’ Cup at Goodwood (3.35) and I think we could see another 3yo winner tomorrow afternoon….

SIR DANCEALOT has a fantastic opportunity of landing this prize for David Elsworth and I want him in the book at this afternoon’s 14s with Coral and Ladbrokes in the ante-post market.  

He’s set to go up to a mark of 110. If he were running off that rating tomorrow, he’d be right at the top of the weights. As it is, he gets to go off 101 and carries just 8-12. No wonder Ryan Moore, who must have had a choice of about half a dozen of these, has opted to ride him.

It’s not just a case of weights and measures either. Sir Dancealot pitches up in good fettle. After a trio of relatively disappointing early-season efforts, his last-time-out performance at Newmarket last month was much more like it – and he can build on that tomorrow.

That last run was over 7f and this is over 6f. But I’m not concerned about that. The 3yo produced a smart performance over 6f in the Rockingham at York as a juvenile. And he wasn’t entirely disgraced in this season’s G3 Pavilion Stakes at Ascot where he came up against some genuine top-drawer G1 sprinters….

He’s unexposed at 6f in handicap company and he’s got a great opportunity at the weights. The price is fair enough.

  • I’m two-against-the-field….

I know some of you will want to be each-way in this kind of race. But I’m playing it two-against-the-field….

The other one I like at a price is Richard Fahey’s EASTERN IMPACT at 22s.

Rated as high as 112 this time last year and having placed in a G1 the season before, Fahey’s horse is now down to 104. And he’s produced a sequence of decent performances, albeit in defeat, this term….

Last time in the Wokingham at Royal Ascot, he wasn’t unfancied. On the day, he finished a creditable 7th, despite not getting a clear passage.

Fahey hasn’t torn the backside out of the horse by racing him week on week. Instead, he’s been patient with him. That tells me Fahey believes his horse can win off his current mark and he’s picked out this target carefully.

The first-time cheekpieces have been applied for tomorrow. Connections will hope they can eek out just that bit more from the horse. At 22s, I’m prepared to bet that’s the case. I anticipate a big run.

  • 98 could be a workable mark at this trip….

A little earlier on the card, the run the Summer Handicap (2.25) and I want to be with SAIGON CITY at this morning’s 10s.

The 7yo has done very nicely since switching to Declan Carroll from Luca Cumani in April last year. He’s only run half-a-dozen times since but he’s acquitted himself more than adequately on most occasions – particularly when stepped up to trips – and he’s risen 10lbs in the ratings to 98.

But I don’t think that puts the lid on him and I think there could still be more to come from this gutsy stayer.

Back on his seasonal debut over 12f at Doncaster in April he ran a big race at a big price off a mark of 98 to finish 2nd behind 107-rated Chemical Charge and directly ahead of 113-rated Muntahaa. He was on level weights with the winner and in receipt of 6lbs from the third horse.

Chemical Charge won a couple of weeks back off 114. Muntahaa subsequently won off 113. Other horses behind Saigon City that day at Doncaster have run with credit off marks in the low hundreds.

My point is that 98 could be a workable mark at this 14f trip – which he won over at the first-time of asking last time out at Newmarket in a small field.

Jockey Pat Cosgrave retains the ride here. He’s been off 78 days but showed at Doncaster that he can perform off the back of a break. The 10s is a fair enough quote.

The Contrarian Bet Box….

To recap on where my contrarian money will be going tomorrow afternoon….

In the Stewards’ Cup (3.35 @ Goodwood)....

  • Nick’s Contrarian Picks – SIR DANCEALOT (14s Coral & Ladbrokes) & EASTERN IMPACT (22s generally)

In the Summer Handicap (2.25 @ Goodwood)....

  • Nick’s Contrarian Picks – SAIGON CITY (10s generally)

That is my take on where the value lies – but you will no doubt have your own ideas and that’s exactly as it should be.

  • The last word….

That’s all from me for now.

I’ll be back in your inbox a little later today with ATC Extra….

Until later. Stay tuned.

Nick Pullen

Against the Crowd