25th August 2017
In this week’s issue….
One horse I want to back tomorrow is Weekend Offensive at York in the Betfred Supports Jack Berry House Handicap (4.40)….
But the bookies don’t consider the race worthy of pricing-up early. Not even the race sponsors – Betfred….
Not much use for our purposes…. But if I can get 8s or bigger, I’ll be backing Kevin Ryan’s charge – as and when prices do appear.
He’s progressive and unexposed at the 10f trip. I think he can run well tomorrow. There’s a good chance I’ll get the price with a few other progressive horses in the race that the market might fancy a bit more – the likes of Titi Makfi, UAE Prince and Khairaat….
The big betting heat down at Goodwood tomorrow afternoon is the Grosvenor Sport Handicap (2.45) over the 7f trip with a 6-figure prize pot on offer….
In a big-field over 7f at Goodwood it is customary to look low in terms of stall numbers and I looked long and hard at Marcus Tregoning’s unexposed 3yo Mukalal….
He’s been doing his work on the all-weather and has progressed nicely across the summer – never out of the frame until last time at Chelmsford. That 4th place finish looks like it might be half-decent form. The winner that day, Qassem, went very close yesterday at York and looks well better than his current mark of 98.
Mukalal goes tomorrow off 93. But it will be just his second turf start and he obviously has a little something to prove. Maybe a little too much in a race of this nature. At 12s, he’s just off the radar.
The one I prefer more is TRUTH OR DARE at 14s. He’s been running well across the summer and he turns out tomorrow still rated just 91. I reckon that leaves him still with margin to work with and in my book the price underestimates him….
Last time out he got a look at the track and he handled its quirks and peculiarities with aplomb. For sure, that was a C3 but he won it comfortably enough and he only went up 4lb for the win….
This horse has come back to life of late. He went to James Bethell’s yard in May. It took him a while to get going but he’s on a real roll of late. He’s coming all the way from North Yorkshire. Bethell doesn’t have many runners at the track. I think this one shows up with a big chance.
Okay, that’s doing what is expected and going low. Now I’m going the other way and picking out a high-drawn one.
Before we go there, a quick word on the big race of the day up at York….
Over on my paid ATC service the Ebor is the feature event tomorrow afternoon – a field of 20 heads to post for the valuable 14f event that always attracts a host of classy types.
There’s no shortage of likely candidates for that one – as you’d imagine. It’ no easy task. There’s been some big-priced winners in recent times….
I’ve gone two-against-the-field with a pair I believe have been specifically laid-out for this race and are available at decent prices. I’m backing both to win and looking for one to do the business and land me a profit.
You can get immediate access to these extra bets on the website when you take a FREE 14-day test drive of my Against the Crowd service….
Mark Johnston’s SUTTER COUNTY is drawn in stall 14. But I can see Joe Fanning getting him started right from the get-go, getting across and setting out to make all. He did something very similar over course and distance in May.
After that he seemed to completely lose his way with a sequence of disappointing efforts. Maybe he’d been on the go a bit too long. Johnston isn’t known for giving his handicappers an easy time….
But he did give Sutter County a month off in mid-July and it seemed to help. Next time on the all-weather he produced something much more like his level and he comes here off the back of that.
He’s back down to the mark he won off at Goodwood earlier in the summer and it is noteworthy that the blinkers have been applied for the first time. That could be just the move required to light the horse up and enable him to go from stalls to post with the others playing catch-up.
The draw is a bit of a worry. But at 16s, the horse is a nice bet.
Down at Goodwood in the Grosvenor Sport Handicap (2.45)
TRUTH OR DARE @ 14s (Generally)
SUTTER COUNTY @ 16s (Generally)
Standard place terms are 1/4 1-2-3-4. I’m backing Truth Or Dare and Sutter County win only. But how you play is your choice!
That’s all from me this week. Enjoy your weekend.
P.S. Racebets are laying 100s about ANY horse in tomorrow’s Ebor to new account openers. You can only get on to the tune of £1 but the price represents a real bonus whatever you fancy backing in tomorrow’s big race. Get the big price here….