13th October 2017
We head up to York for tomorrow’s target race – the Download the Coral App Handicap (2.05)….
This is a class 2 handicap over the 10f trip for horses aged 3yo+ and rated 0 to 110. The going is good and a field of 14 heads to post.
It’s a compact little race with Linguistic heading the weights on his mark of 103. Syphax is the bottom-rated horse on his mark of 98. He’s tumbled 12lbs down the ranking on the back of just three disappointing runs since May….
It’s an unusual race on one basis – not even one of the 14 horses slated to run won last time out or the time before….
The market likes Chelsea Lad. He’s the favourite at 4s in this afternoon’s market. Last time out he ran 4th in the Cambridgeshire.
He likes Newmarket – he’d won twice there before that Cambridgeshire run. He’s run well at York too – back in May. But that was over 7f. This will be his first go at the 10f trip. It should suit. He was running on at the end of the 9f at Newmarket. He has obvious claims but the market has found him.
The 3yo Anythingtoday is also fancied. He’s been going well of late with the addition of cheekpieces, winning at Newmarket and Bath off 86 and 90 before placing in decent handicaps at Goodwood and at Newbury off 97.
The Newbury effort showed him to good effect up against the older horses. In between times he probably found 12f on soft ground at Ascot a little too demanding. I can’t argue with the market’s assessment, but he’s short enough for this column
The job – self-imposed – of this column is not to follow the market and highlight the most likely winners. But to identify the horse we believe the market is overlooking at the prices. We’re seeking the value….
We’ll get to my selections for tomorrow’s race in a moment….
Over on my paid ATC service we’re targeting a brace of big handicaps tomorrow – the Cesarewitch at Newmarket and the Coral Sprint Trophy at York….
I’m two-against-the-field in the 34-runner Cesarewitch – siding with a horse that looks dangerously well-weighted and another who has the right jockey onboard for the task in hand….
In the Coral Sprint Trophy, I’m each-way on one that looks underestimated at this level – and at a decent price….
You can get immediate access to these extra bets on the website when you take a FREE 14-day test drive of my Against the Crowd service….
You can draw a line through DARK RED’S last two runs….
On paper he looks like a two-time beaten favourite – but he got a bit squeezed for room in a tactical affair at Doncaster and then at Chelmsford last time he was denied room repeatedly and couldn’t get competitive as a result.
But he’s clearly been fancied and that suggests he’s working well back at base. And on a mark of 96 he can figure more prominently in tomorrow’s race than his price of 14s suggests.
He likes the track. He’s placed in course and distance handicaps twice previously off 95 and 96. So, he’s certainly not weighted out of it. And it is noteworthy that Ed Dunlop has chosen this assignment for the application of first-time blinkers – which might very well improve the horse.
In eight runs this term only Ryan Moore has been on the horse more than once and it’s another fresh rider – Franny Norton – taking up piloting duties tomorrow. But Norton has been on the horse once before and he got a tune out of him – winning a handicap on him at Epson early last season. As omens go, it’s not a bad one.
Price is the bottom line and at 14s with Unibet and Coral he looks underestimated. He’s on a workable mark at a venue where he’s produced two of his best efforts. And the headgear might just enable him to produce something better again.
Standard place terms are 1/4 1-2-3. If 14s is an each-way price in your book, don’t let me put you off playing for the places.
That’s all from me this week. Enjoy your weekend.