1st December 2017
The Ladbrokes Handicap Hurdle at Newbury tomorrow (1.50) asks the question we must find the value-priced answer to this weekend….
It’s not a massive turnout – with just 12 slated to go to post over the extended 2m4f trip on ground described as good to soft this afternoon….
This is a class 2 event for horses aged 4yo+ and rated 0 to 150….
Old boy Court Minstrel heads the weights off his mark of 149. Down at the bottom Chris Gordon’s Vicenzo Mio carries 10-0 courtesy of his mark of 123.
There’s plenty to like about Air Horse One – who heads the betting at 7/2….
Last time out he was 4th in a race at Ascot that has already produced multiple winners….
Elgin subsequently won the Greatwood Handicap Hurdle off 145 and is now rated 151….
Runner-up Limited Reserve won at Haydock last weekend off 125 and is now rated 133….
And the 5th horse home Verdana Blue subsequently won off 136 and is now rated 144….
Air Horse One ran off 141 at Ascot but is now rated 145. It could well be the case that he lacks the same scope for improvement as the horses around him that day….
The form of the Ascot race is strong and working out well and this job might not prove beyond Harry Fry’s 6yo. But I don’t want him at the price. I’m happy enough to look elsewhere….
Incidentally, High Bridge who was 3rd that day at Ascot runs at Newbury tomorrow in the 2.25….
We’ll get to my selections for tomorrow’s target race in a moment. First, a quick word on what is a busy racing day tomorrow….
Newbury hosts one of the best and most-competitive handicaps of the season tomorrow – the Ladbrokes Trophy Chase (formerly the Hennessy Gold Cup)….
I’m two-against-the-field in that one – coupling up a pair of horses I think the market is under-estimating at nice prices….
I’m having a bet at a fair price on a well-weighted horse I expect to bounce back in the Ladbrokes Handicap Chase (3.35)….
Meanwhile, up at Newcastle in the Rehearsal Handicap Chase (3.20), I’m backing one that I expect to run a big race off a handy mark
You can get immediate access to these extra bets on the website when you take a FREE 14-day test drive of my Against the Crowd service….
Alan King’s DINO VELVET is my idea of the pick at the prices – he’s each-way value at this afternoon’s general 16s.
I think that’s an attractive price about a 4yo who is poised to leave his mark of 123 well behind….
He’s been racing over the minimum trip and was unlucky not to be closer than 8th in the Fred Winter at the Festival in March….
A mistake shuffled him back down the field and he did well to claw his way back to where he did – having met interference to boot….
Connections have long been of the view that this horse will improve for a step-up in trip and his opportunity to deliver on that expectation comes tomorrow – under a featherweight.
His reappearance at Chepstow was workmanlike but I expect the extra half mile to squeeze out plenty of improvement and he’s a big each-way price in my book.
In tomorrow’s Ladbrokes Handicap Hurdle (Newbury, 1.50)….
DINO VELVET @ 16s (Generally)
Standard place terms are 1/4 1-2-3. I’ll be going in each-way.
That’s all from me this week. Enjoy your weekend.
P.S. It’s a busy day of racing tomorrow with plenty of bets to be had. Racebets can help with the finance. Open a new account, bet £10 in the 12.20 at Newbury and Racebets will give you two FREE £10 bets on any other Newbury races. If you want to play with some of the bookmaker’s own money you can open that new account right here.