20th April 2018
We turn our attention to the flat this weekend and take a shot at the Spring Cup down at Newbury….
A field of 25-runners goes to post over the straight mile on good to soft ground….
It’s still early-doors as far as the flat season is concerned. Some of the yards are yet to find their feet. Some of the horses are yet to run during this calendar year….
In other words, it’s not easy. But what is tough for us is tough for the opposition – the bookies and the folk we are betting against in the market….
It’s an environment where mistakes can be made. We must trust our methods and seek to capitalize…
We’ll get to my selections for tomorrow’s race at Newbury in a moment….
First a quick word on the additional value bets I’ll be placing tomorrow….
Confidence on my paid ATC service is high right now – after we produced multiple big handicap winners and big betting profits at Cheltenham and again at Aintree….
Tomorrow’s Scottish Grand National up at Ayr looks an open affair and tough to call. But we’re not going to let that put us off….
I’ve gone two-against-the-field at nice prices with a pair of horses I expect to produce big performances at the weights….
You can get immediate access to these extra bets on the website when you take a FREE 14-day test drive of my Against the Crowd service….
It is black or white with Richard Fahey’s THIRD TIME LUCKY. He either runs great or he produces nothing at all….
Last time at Naas in the Irish Lincolnshire it was a case of the latter. The horse got smashed – putting up no kind of performance….
In his defence, travelling to Ireland was a new experience. He didn’t get the rub of the green with the draw either – starting out widest of the 20 runners. And the ground was a good deal heavier than anything he’d encountered before….
Forget the distance he got beaten. He was eased right down when his chance had gone.
It was his first performance on turf since April 2017. He missed most of last term. He’s been busy on the all-weather over the winter and his turf mark has tumbled from 106 to 95 – a perch he can certainly do business off if he produces what he’s capable of….
There’s no guarantee, of course. He’s a quirky individual. But he’s back on grass and this is another shot at a big prize off a mark that would have seemed like a gift 12-months ago.
Richard Fahey has a decent record in the race, the horse has been drawn in the middle – giving Tony Hamilton all the options. I reckon the horse that won the 2015 Cambridgeshire off tomorrow’s mark is a player….
The 25s available about him is very attractive….
If you wanted to back that one each-way, I wouldn’t put you off. But I’ll be going two-against-the-field and foregoing the chance to play for place money because I want George Scott’s GILGAMESH onside at 14s….
This one was a big juvenile and has taken time to grow into this frame. Connections have been very patient with him.
He wasn’t given an arduous schedule as 3yo but this year I expect him to come into his own – and first-time-up is a good time to catch this horse that goes well fresh….
He steps up to the mile for the first time. I expect that to improve him. And a mark of 92 I reckon there’s a lot more to come from a horse that’s appeared just three times on turf and just six times overall….
William Buick has been in cracking form over the last fortnight with 9 winners coming from his last 24 rides. He’s an eye-catching booking on a horse set to take it to a different level now that he’s had time to fill out and mature….
The Pick of the Prices….
To recap on where my contrarian money will be going tomorrow afternoon….
In the Spring Cup (3.45 @ Newbury)....
That is my take on where the value lies – but you will no doubt have your own ideas and that’s exactly as it should be.
That’s all from me this week.
Enjoy your weekend.