4th May 2018
We’re up at Wetherby for tomorrow’s target race….
It’s not a regular venue for us. But they’ve shifted this season’s edition of the Hunt Cup (3.05) over to the track from Thirsk….
It’s a class 2 race over the mile trip for horses aged 4yo+ and rated 0 to 100….
A field of 16 runners goes to post on ground described this afternoon as good to soft….
Michael Dods’s King’s Gift tops the weights on his mark of 100. At the other end of the scale Just Hiss for Tim Easterby is rated 90 and carries 8-11.
David O’Meara’s Fayez is the big riser having gone up 11lbs to a mark of 93 since his last run on turf – all down to his subsequent exploits on the all-weather over the winter.
Michael Easterby’s Gulf of Poets is another riser coming into the race – he’s gone up another 7lbs for his last time out win at Haydock. He was rated 85 just a couple of weeks ago, he’s now up to 98. He won in fair style at Haydock and might not be finished yet – but life is certainly tougher than it was.
We’ll get to my selections for tomorrow’s race in a moment….
First a quick word on what you missed on my paid ATC service this week….
This week on ATC….
We explored the point that not every loser is necessarily a bad bet – with last week’s pick at Sandown – Wolf of Windlesham – representing a solid case in point….
We took a little useful instruction from a Group horse – and how he might point the way in future big-field handicaps….
We discovered that at ATC we go about picking horses in the big handicaps in much the same way that the world’s most successful investor goes about buying stock in big companies….
And we turned our attention to the stats for pointers on how might get ahead of the curve in this weekend’s big handicap events….
You can view this material and a whole load of additional angles, insights and observations in the archive on the ATC website when you take a 14-day FREE trial of the ATC service. Do that right here....
Back to tomorrow’s target race and the pick of the prices….
Roger Fell had the runner-up in this race last year and he can go one better this time around with ELUSIVE HEIGHTS….
The horse was with Ger Lyons in Ireland until the middle of last month and Fell wasted no time in targeting a decent pot for new owners Middleham Park Racing.
He sent the horse to the Spring Cup at Newbury where the 5yo outran market expectation without ever quite threatening to get in the proper shake-up. But it was a nice enough performance first-time up for a new yard, first-time up in Britain and first-time up since the previous September….
Fell had a 7lb claimer on the horse’s back at Newbury. He’s dropped 2lb in the handicap for the performance and rather than reach for another apprentice, Fell has instead booked Daniel Tudhope for the job tomorrow….
That’s an interesting booking. Tudhope’s principal ride-provider David O’Meara has two in the race. Maybe they were always going to be ridden by claimers – freeing Tudhope up to ride for Fell. Maybe Tudhope begged leave. We can’t know.
But the booking suggests this is something more than a casual potshot and the draw has worked out kindly for a horse that likes to be on the pace in big-field races. He’s on the inside and gets to go the shortest way around.
The bookies are not up with prices at 4.30 pm and I have to send my copy to my publisher. I'm expecting this horse to be up at 10s. If we can get bigger, all the better.
The other one I like is last-time-out winner MUTAMADED for Ruth Carr….
He’s gone up 4lbs for his Ripon success, but he’s still very lightly raced and there could be more to come yet from the 5yo – especially on the better ground he’ll get tomorrow.
His win at Ripon represented a bit of a shock at the prices. But the form looks solid and I think he’s underestimated tomorrow.
The bookies are not up with prices at 4.30 pm and I have to send my copy to my publisher. I'm expecting this horse to be up at 12s. If we can get bigger, all the better.
The Pick of the Prices….
To recap on where my contrarian money will be going tomorrow afternoon….
In the Totesport Hunt Cup (3.05 @ Wetherby).
That is my take on where the value lies – but you will no doubt have your own ideas and that’s exactly as it should be.
Over on my ATC service we’re targeting tomorrow’s Spring Lodge Stakes over the straight 9f at Newmarket….
I’m doing my usual trick and going two-against-the field – I’m backing a fast-improving horse and a dangerously well-handicapped sleeper....
I’m also backing a real contender at a price down at Goodwood in the Matchbook Handicap….
You can get immediate access to these extra bets on the website when you take a FREE 14-day test drive of my Against the Crowd service….
We all know that 9 out of 10 tipping services are run by charlatans….
Most will charge £30 to £50 a month – sometimes more – for selections. And when they record their results the profits (four-figure jobs which look good at first glance) are to stakes of £50 or even £100 per horse….
How many common-garden racing punters really bet that way – especially during the week? Who has that kind of money to put up day after day?
A good friend of mine reckons that what most day-to-day punters really want is an honest low-cost, low-stakes old-school service that seeks to make a decent wage….
I reckon he’s onto something. So does my publisher. We’ve challenged him to put his money where his mouth is….
I think we took him by surprise. But the signs are that he’s going to step up to the plate and do it. If we can get him over the line, I’ll tell you one thing for sure: it’s going to be very interesting….
More to follow….
That’s all from me this week.
Enjoy your weekend.