Thursday, 17th May 2018
So it was a case of ninth time lucky for George Bowen in yesterday’s Infinity Tyres Handicap at York....
He’d been to the track eight times previously. And eight times he’d been beaten. ‘He dislikes the place,’ trainer Richard Fahey said immediately after the race.
But not yesterday. He won a 5f handicap by a good 6-lengths. You won’t see that very often. A mark of 89 proved more than competitive....
It had been two-and-a-half years since his last win of any real significance – a big £100k sprint handicap at the Curragh in September 2015....
He’d been put up 9lbs to a mark of 100 for that win. In the 27 races that followed he won just one – a 9k race at Nottingham last June....
This term his mark went sub-90 again and he was able to do what he did yesterday and land a nice pot for his connections....
The pantomime started almost immediately. Fahey bobbed and weaved and feinted. ‘I hope the handicapper doesn’t take it too literally,’ he told his ITV interviewers. ‘It might be two-years before he wins again....’
The horse can expect to be up in the 90s again when reassessed. And he whole process will start all over again....
The trainer will have to run him to get him back down to a perch he can do business off. The job of the punter is to recognize when that time comes and pick the right moment to go in....
Of course, I didn’t manage that yesterday. I thought George Bowen didn’t like the track!
We turn our attention now to the Equinity Technology Handicap run at 4.05 tomorrow afternoon at York.
A field of 11 goes to post for the class 2 event run over the left-handed 10f....
The one I like at the prices is the Ian-Williams-trained BANDITRY at 12s generally....
He ran a decent enough race on his comeback to finish 4th in the Spring Lodge Stakes at Newmarket over the straight 9f....
He was beaten 5-lengths, but I’m mindful that the front two that day were young progressive types now rated 104 and 106 but running off sub-100 marks on the day....
It was a good effort from the Williams horse over a trip that was probably shorter than ideal – let’s not forget that he stays 2-miles over hurdles....
The bottom line is that Newmarket run could prove to be an excellent prep for this race tomorrow – run over an ideal extended 10f trip....
There’s a race for us at Newbury tomorrow too – the Starlight Brightening Lives Handicap over the 6f trip at 2.35....
The one I like at the prices is John Gallagher's QUENCH DOLLY at 12s with Bet Victor and 11s and 10s generally....
The filly ran some smart races last term on her way up the rankings from 73 to 99. So much so, she was tried at Listed level.
Her form tailed off toward the back end of the season and she's not been quite at it in her two runs to date this term....
But she will be fitter for the runs and, most importantly, she’s dropped down the scale now to 93, a mark she won off last season at Goodwood....
And the booking of smart 5lbs claimer Jason Watson suggests connections are serious about capitalizing on that diminishing mark tomorrow....
The fast ground is not a bother for me. Yes, she's earned the bigger part of her career-earnings to date on surfaces with cut, but she’s versatile and ran some very nice races on fast ground last term too.
The bottom line is that she's nicely-weighted again and can go better than market sentiment suggests.
The Contrarian Bet Box….To recap on where my contrarian money will be going tomorrow afternoon…. In the Equinity Technology Handicap (4.05 @ York).
In the Starlight Brightening Lives Handicap(2.35 @ Newbury).
That is my take on where the value lies – but you will no doubt have your own ideas and that’s exactly as it should be. |
That’s all from me for today.
Win, lose or draw – enjoy the racing....
I’ll be back in your inbox tomorrow with my contrarian take on the weekend action....
Until then. Stay tuned.
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