25th May 2018
We’re up to Haydock park for tomorrow’s target race – the Amix Silver Bowl Handicap (2.50)….
It’s a class 2 event over the left-handed mile trip for 3yos….
A field of 17 goes to post on ground described this afternoon as good to firm. It’s raining right now at the track. But the forecast says it will be dry from later this afternoon onward -giving way to sunny and warm weather tomorrow. The rain will take a little of the sting out of the surface, but it won’t be Haydock soft….
David O’Meara’s Cold Stare and Tom Dascombe’s Finniston Farm are joint top-weight carriers off official marks of 101. Down at the bottom, Michael Bell’s Highlight Reel is rated 82 and carries 8-2.
We’ll get to my selections for tomorrow’s race in a moment. First a quick word on what you missed on my paid ATC service this week….
This week on ATC….
On Monday we discussed why I’m beginning to develop a case of dyophobia….
On Tuesday we took one from last week’s Infinity at York and added him to our Watch List. This horse is running into form on a very competitive mark at a time of year he usually reserves for his best showings….
On Wednesday we added one to the Watch List from last week’s Jack Berry House Handicap at York. This one ran a big race for an out-of-form yard and looks every inch a 90+ horse in the making….
On Thursday we did some groundwork for this weekend’s target race over on ATC – the Sprint Stakes at York. We provide the evidence that pinpoints what to look for and where….
You can view this material and a whole load of additional angles, insights and observations in the archive on the ATC website when you take a 14-day FREE trial of the ATC service. Do that right here....
Back to tomorrow’s target race and the pick of the prices….
HIGHLIGHT REEL produced a decent effort on his reappearance at Ascot earlier this month – his first race since being gelded over the winter….
He was still going well 2f from home when he ran into the back of Al Jellaby and Jamie Spencer had to switch him right….
That move cost the horse valuable momentum at a key point in the race and his winning chance went up in smoke….
But he can earn some compensation tomorrow and the 10s and 11s available this afternoon is a fair enough price about a horse that appears to be plenty forward and capable of winning off the 82….
Jamie Spencer switches to Brian Meehan’s horse but he can’t do the 8-2 on Highlight Reel and I don’t read too much into that. Hayley Turner deputizes….
The other one I want to be on is Tom Dascombe’s FINNISTON FARM at 16s with Ladbrokes and 14s generally….
The Dascombe/Kingscote combination is always one worth noting at this track and Dascombe’s string has run into a decent vein of form over the last fortnight or so….
The time before last Dascombe run the horse over a 7f trip. He ran well in 2nd but gave the impression the trip was inadequate….
Last time at Chester he was stepped up to 10f and he patently didn’t get it. And if you’re not going to get the trip at the tight and turning Cheshire track, you’re probably not going to get it anywhere….
Dropping back 2f to the mile might just see this horse to very best effect. It will be his first race at the trip and he is open to additional improvement on the strength of it….
Rated 101, he’s a little higher in the weights than ideal. But he raced in a G2 over 7f as a juvenile and he wasn’t disgraced….
Several of those that beat him home have earned official ratings of 106+. You’d expect Dascombe to find improvement in the horse from 2 to 3, especially over the new trip – so 101 isn’t prohibitive in this instance….
The Pick of the Prices….
To recap on where my contrarian money will be going tomorrow afternoon….
In the Amix Silver Bowl Handicap (2.50 @ Haydock).
That is my take on where the value lies – but you will no doubt have your own ideas and that’s exactly as it should be.
Over on my paid ATC service we are targeting the Sprint Stakes up at York….
I’m intrigued about one runner in this race. I think he could produce a massive performance – one much better than his price in the market suggests….
I’m going against the crowd and backing my instincts. I’ve gone in each-way at a big price….
You can get immediate access to this extra bet on the website when you take a FREE 14-day test drive of my Against the Crowd service….
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That’s all from me this week.
Enjoy your weekend.