15th June 2018
We head to Sandown for our target race this weekend – the C2 Randox Health Handicap (3.15) over the right-handed mile….
This one is race for horses aged 3yo+ and rated 0 to 100. A field of 11 runners goes to post on ground described this afternoon as good to firm.
Saeed Bin Suroor’s Silver Line heads the weights and carries 10-0 off a mark of 98. At the other end of the scale, Brett Johnson’s Lacan carries 9-0 off a mark of 84.
We’ll get to my selection for tomorrow’s race in a moment….
First a quick word on what you missed on my paid ATC service this week….
This week on ATC….
We’ve been doing the spadework ahead of next week’s 5-day Royal Ascot meeting….
We’ve been looking at the what the historic record has tell us about betting the big handicaps run at the fixture….
We’ll be targeting bets at prices in all those races next week – that much is for sure….
You can review this material and a whole load of additional angles, insights and observations in the archive on the ATC website when you take a 14-day FREE trial of the ATC service.
Back to tomorrow’s target race and the pick of the prices….
VIA SERENDIPITY has been in good heart this term – characterized by his 5th place finish in the Victoria Cup at Ascot where he was beaten 1.5 lengths off a mark of 90….
A couple of the horses in arrears to him that afternoon have since come out and franked the form. Spanish City won off 88 and is now rated 91 whilst Gilgamesh won off 96 and is now rated 100….
An unchanged mark of 90 for tomorrow’s contest is more than workable in that context and, unlike some of the fancied horses he opposes tomorrow, you’d think that the prevailing good to firm ground would be right up his street….
He’s certainly race fit – having run as recently as Wednesday on the all-weather at Chelmsford where he was beaten just a length by a progressive and well-thought-of horsed of William Haggas’s….
They’re talking about that one as a Royal Hunt Cup horse – if he can make the cut – and a length defeat from that perspective is no disgrace….
Fran Berry takes the ride for the first time. That is a potential fly in the ointment, but the horse doesn’t have a regular jockey and the trainer seems to rely on getting the best available rider on a race by race basis.
The other possible glitch is that this will be his first go right-handed. My take is to give a horse a couple of chances to prove he can’t do something before just assuming he can’t. So, I’m not going to concern myself too much with that issue….
The quick turnaround from Chelmsford suggests that connections are keen to make the most of a horse that is bouncing, and I note that he was turned around quickly to win in his juvenile season….
I expect the horse to be in the mix and the 7s currently available with Ladbrokes and Sunbets seems plenty fair….
The Pick of the Prices....
To recap on where my contrarian money will be going tomorrow afternoon….
In the Randox Health Handicap (3.15 @ Sandown).
That is my take on where the value lies – but you will no doubt have your own ideas and that’s exactly as it should be.
We’re up at York tomorrow on my paid ATC service – and we’re targeting bets at prices in two of the handicaps on the card….
In the JCB Handicap, I’m on a live contender at a mid-range price….
In the big-field sprint handicap over 6f, I’m on one each-way at a very tasty price….
You can get immediate access to these extra bets on the website when you take a FREE 14-day test drive of my Against the Crowd service….
That’s all from me this week….
Enjoy your weekend.