The contrarian word on Day 3 at Royal Ascot....

Last Updated: 20.06.2018

Wednesday, 20th June 2018

The contrarian word on Day 3 at Royal Ascot….

Hugo Palmer’s CORROSIVE appeals to me at 16s with bet365 and Sunbets for tomorrow afternoon’s cavalry charge that is the Britannia Stakes (5.00).

They think plenty of this horse and he’s been given some nice entries. He was down as a possible runner in yesterday’s G1 St James’s Palace Stakes....

He hasn’t yet produced the kind of quality performance which would justify pitching him into the mix at that level. That’s for sure....

But the fact he was entered at all tells us something about the regard he is held. He might not make it as an absolute top-level performer, but the chances are that he will probably prove to be a good bit better than a 90-rated handicapper....

He is clearly progressive horse and showed how tough he is last time over tomorrow’s course and distance with a gritty win in a big-field handicap despite running gassy. He showed real desire to prevail....

That will hold him in good stead tomorrow. So too the experience on – and a liking for – the track. His yard is in decent fettle too and that’s never a disadvantage....

  • Two-against-the-field....

The other one I’m going to back in this is the Aidan O’Brien-trained BOND STREET at 18s with Sunbets and 16s generally. Like the other pick, he’s drawn high....

He’s partnered by Ryan Moore. That’s only happened once in five runs this term – when Bond Street was beaten by Medal of Honour at the Curragh over a mile on quick ground....

That one is considered smart and the form of the race is working out quite well – with seven subsequent runners producing three wins and a 2nd between them....

One of those wins was produced Bond Street at Leopardstown over 7f a fortnight back. He’s been running into form across the early part of the summer, the last performance was the best yet, and the best of all might yet be to come.... 

Quick ground has really improved the horse, he handles the all-weather and you’d think Ascot will really suit....

A big field like this is always an imponderable, but in Moore the 3yo has the right partner for the job and I reckon the price is reasonable enough....

  • In the King George....

In the last race on the Day 3 card at 5.35, a field of 19-runners goes to post for the King George V Stakes. It seems like a small field after assessing the Royal Hunt Cup and the Britannia back-to-back....

DUKHAN has had his wedding tackle removed since his last run – and that might be just what he needs....

He ran too free – but still ran well – first time up over 10f at Newmarket in April. He ran well again next time despite the race not being run to suit, despite being a bit too free again and despite meeting trouble.

Next time they tried him in cheekpieces. That doesn’t appear to have had the desired effect. So, now he’s been gelded....

And that could prove the key to a horse that looks like he will get this trip and who Palmer is on record as saying will be a stake-class performer if he does so....

He’s got a bit of class about him (they had him in the Derby) and a bit of speed too (he’s won over a mile) and he’s one I can make a real case about improving tomorrow. At 25s generally, he’s fair bet for my money....

I’m going to couple that one up with Aidan O’Brien’s LUCIUS TIBERIUS at 16s with Ladbrokes & Sunbets....

This race has been the target for this horse since he won his maiden at the fourth time of asking at the Curragh in May....

Forget the last time out effort in a Listed race at Leopardstown. He was flat and disappointing on the day and the defeat had nothing to do with trying the mile and a half trip for the first time....

It was an off-day. No more. No less. All horses have them, and all horses can bounce back from them....

The fast ground will suit, and this horse is a nice bet at the price to bounce back and build on his progress under Ryan Moore....

The Contrarian Bet Box….

To recap on where my contrarian money will be going tomorrow afternoon….

In the Britannia Stakes (5.00 @ Ascot).

  • Nick’s Contrarian Picks – CORROSIVE (16s bet365 & Sunbets) & BOND STREET (18s Sunbets & 16s generally)

Get the latest odds here >>

In the King George V Stakes (5.35 @ Ascot).

  • Nick’s Contrarian Picks – DUKHAN (25s generally) & LUCIUS TIBERIUS (16s Ladbrokes & Sunbets)

Get the latest odds here >>

That is my take on where the value lies – but you will no doubt have your own ideas and that’s exactly as it should be.

  • The last word….

That’s all from me for today.

Win, lose or draw – enjoy the racing....

I’ll be back in your inbox tomorrow with my contrarian take on Day 4 at Royal Ascot....

Until then. Stay tuned.

Nick Pullen

Against the Crowd