29th June 2018
Newcastle and the AW is where the action is at this weekend….
We’re up there tomorrow for this week’s target race at 12.20 – the Betfred ‘Supports Jack Berry House’ Handicap….
This is a class 2 event for horses aged 3yo+ and rated 0 to 100. A maximum field of 14 runners goes at it up the 6f straight….
Roger Varian’s 4yo, Ekhtiyaar, heads the weights and carries 9-12 off a mark of 99 – 1lb below the maximum. At the other end of the list, Daniel Kubler’s Outrage is rated 89 and carries 9-2. The spread between the 14 runners amounts to just 10lbs….
A minimal spread could serve to make it a little easier for the classier horses (the higher-rated ones) to express their dominance….
The market is on to this, with the Varian horse topping the betting at prices no better than 5s….
On this column, we never bet the favourite. On this column – where the competitive handicaps are the primary focus – a favourite represents nothing more than a horse to oppose….
Sometimes the favourites win. More frequently they end up losing. We seek to capitalize on the latter situation by looking for the horse the market is incorrectly overlooking….
We’ll get to my selections for tomorrow’s race in a moment….
First a quick word on the other races we’re targeting this weekend on my paid ATC service – we’re looking to kick on after a profitable assault on the handicaps at Royal Ascot last week….
The part gets started early this weekend….
We’ve got a Friday night date up at Newcastle where we’re targeting the Gosforth Park Cup Handicap at 7.30 on the straight mile….
I’m nailing my colours to the mast of a horse that was progressive last term but has lost his way a little this season – albeit with legitimate excuses. He’s a fair price to bounce back and the trainers has made some interesting changes to the set-up….
Tomorrow’s feature at Newcastle is the long-distance Northumberland Plate. We’re targeting that big-field race too….
I reckon the market is wrong about one of the big priced horses – and we’ll be getting on that one each-way….
You can get immediate access to these extra bets on the website when you take a FREE 14-day test drive of my Against the Crowd service….
Back now to tomorrow afternoon’s Jack Berry House Handicap and the pick of the prices. They got post at 12.20….
The one I like at the prices is Robert Cowell’s VISIONARY at 10s – a Listed winner as a 3yo….
Forget about how his last run at Hamilton looks on paper – he was 5th of 5 and beaten 5.5 lengths. He was completely unfancied on the day and that’s no surprise whatsoever given that he was up against it at the weights in a conditions event….
A better guide to him is his performance the time before at Chelmsford where he ran a nice race in what was his first go in a handicap behind a horse who got first run on him….
Visionary – rated 95 – made up plenty of ground late on and was only beaten a neck at the post with the rest of the field 3-lengths and more in arrear to the pair….
Rated 98 for tomorrow’s race, Visionary is probably as high as you’d want him. But the spread – as we have seen – is not overwhelming and the booking of a 7lb claimer will serve to make the assignment much easier than it might otherwise have been….
This horse has only been outside the first three once on the AW and I expect another strong showing. He’s a fair price to produce it….
The Pick of the Prices….
To recap on where my contrarian money will be going tomorrow afternoon….
In the Jack Berry House Handicap (12.20 @ Newcastle).
That is my take on where the value lies – but you will no doubt have your own ideas and that’s exactly as it should be.
That’s all from me for now….
Enjoy your weekend.