6th July 2018
Haydock provides our target race this weekend in the form of the C2 bet365 Handicap (12.35)….
This is race for the 3yos over the 1f trip. A field of 11 runners will exit the stalls on ground described this afternoon as good to firm – and likely to stay that way….
Archie Watson’s Yabass heads the weights and carries 9-7 courtesy of his mark of 99.
At the other end it is dual-trainer Alan King’s Elysees who carries bottomweight of 8-00. Off a rating of 78. The spread amounts to 19lbs.
We’ve got four last-time-out winners gracing the field. Ghostwatch, Rude Awakening and Sexy Beast are the ones attempting to defy the biggest moves up the weights having been raised 8lbs, 10lbs and 7lbs respectively for their last time out successes….
We’ll get to my selections for tomorrow’s race in a moment….
First a quick word on what you missed on my paid ATC service this week….
This week on ATC….
On Monday, we looked back at what happened last weekend at Newcastle and make the point that you can’t always trust to received wisdom when it comes to horse racing….
On Tuesday, we stuck to our contrarian roots and turned the focus on a horse beaten more than 80-legnths last time out. There are good reasons to get enthusiastic about his prospects going forward….
On Wednesday we turned the focus to next week’s July meeting at Newmarket and offered up a Keep-It-Simple-Stupid angle that’s delivered an each-way betting profit of 36 points from just 30 qualifying bets over the last decade….
On Thursday, we highlighted exactly why Ryan Moore will be popular with punters at Newmarket next week but offered up a more profitable angle for the handicaps that’s well off the general radar….
You can view this material and a whole load of additional angles, insights and observations in the archive on the ATC website when you take a 14-day FREE trial of the ATC service. Do that right here....
Back to tomorrow’s target race and the pick of the prices….
Andrew Balding’s DIOCLETIAN looks to be the pick of the prices in this one at the 12s with Coral and Bet Victor….
Last time out he won a race at Doncaster over the extended 14f trip off a mark of 79 and out of the handicap – and he did it in ready fashion. The step-up in trip really suited the horse….
He wasn’t fancied that day, and the form hasn’t worked out quite as well as you might like, but he’s only been put up 4lbs for it and that might prove generous.
The manner of the win suggests a revised mark of 83 won’t put the lid on this son of Camelot….
I guess the ground might be the reason the horse can be got at the price he is. That Doncaster win came on soft….
But he’s only had 5 runs and until he makes the case for himself that fast ground won’t suit, I’m happy to give him the chance to prove otherwise.
He might well be versatile rather than dependent on soft ground. There’s nothing in the form book at this point that patently counters that hypothesis and his sire certainly went well enough on a sound surface….
The bottom line is that he could still be very nicely weighted for a horse clearly progressing now let loose at trips. And the price underplays that….
The Pick of the Prices....
To recap on where my contrarian money will be going tomorrow afternoon….
In the bet365 Handicap (12.35 @ Haydock).
That is my take on where the value lies – but you will no doubt have your own ideas and that’s exactly as it should be.
Over on my paid ATC service, we’re on a nice run and looking to strengthen our run of form this weekend. We’re shooting at a couple of nice handicaps….
In the Coral Challenge at Sandown, I’m siding with a nice each-way prospect at an attractive price….
Meanwhile, up at Haydock in the Old Newton Cup I’m on one at double-figure price who looks set-up to go better than his price suggests….
You can get immediate access to these extra bets on the website when you take a FREE 14-day test drive of my Against the Crowd service….
For an entry fee of just £2.00 you can give yourself a chance of winning £35,000 in cash – plus experience the thrill of owning a racehorse (or at least a 20th share in one) with the Goodwood Syndicate. Details here….
I got the details of this competition from a publication called Coffee Break Winner….
It’s a competition-focused publication for people who like the idea of winning brilliant prizes but who don’t want to make a full-time job of it. And I recommend it….
My partner Jo uses Coffee Break Winner to find a weekly clutch of competitions that we wouldn’t mind winning. Personally, I wouldn’t mind that £35,000….
That’s all from me this week.
Enjoy your weekend.