A big advantage in the plate....

Last Updated: 16.08.2018

Thursday, 16th August 2018

A big advantage in the plate....

Handicaps are generally contested by horses of very similar ability – that’s one factor that makes those big-field races so competitive and hard to call….

For sure, there will be occasions where a handicap field contains a high-quality animal destined for Group races and with whom connections are looking to land a big pot before aiming at the black type….

Those horses can dominate the handicappers – if all goes to plan. They can win a handicap easily – putting a wide margin between themselves and the rest….

But generally, handicaps are contested by horses that slot into a relatively narrow band of ability – and weights are allocated (in principal at least) to draw them closer together still….

  • It isn’t wholly about ability….

Let’s not forget that if the official handicapper has done his job to the letter, a handicap should end with all the horses crossing the line in a dead heat….

Of course, before we start-up a petition calling for the dismissal of the BHA’s entire handicapping team, we should acknowledge that this is an ‘in principal’ scenario….

Horses will be at varying levels of fitness. Conditions and circumstances won’t suit all horses to the same degree. Luck-in-running plays its part. And all the rest of it….

But, that aside, my point is this: in such competitive races, it is often not ability that wins the day....

More times than not it is more about which horses enjoy most advantage on the day....

At least that’s how I see it....

  • Advantage and adversity….

Figuring out which horses potentially enjoy most advantage in handicap races is something I spend a lot of time on….

There’s no one thing to look for. Advantages come in many different forms….

And they are not always obvious. Some can take some real digging out….

And the issue is complicated further by the fact that whilst some factor, variable, issue, condition or circumstance might represent a genuine advantage to a horse in one race, it does not necessarily represent an advantage to it in another....

Indeed, what is advantageous in one race can become an impediment or a source of adversity in another – something that will render the horse uncompetitive; something that will ensure a horse gets beaten....

Any race must be looked at in context. Every race must be taken on its own terms – as it comes – with attention focused on the specifics and particularities of that individual contest….

But there are some interesting generalities to take into consideration too....

  • The top man in the plate....

We’re several months into the flat season now. We have a body of evidence to consult and work with....

And I was interested to figure out which inhabitants of the weighing room, boast the best record in the biggest and most valuable handicaps run to date this term – those worth £25k+ to winning connections....

You never quite know what you’re going to find when you set out on these number-crunching assignments....

But what I hoped to find were riders with standout records that suggest they act as a real advantage to horses taking part in those most competitive of races....

And I wasn’t disappointed. On this year’s figures, one jockey stands out above all others – Silvestre De Sousa....

If you have a ‘live’ contender for one of the big British handicaps and you’re looking for a pilot to do the steering, the figures for 2018 suggest that the Brazilian is the best man for the job....

His 43 qualifying rides on the turf and the all-weather this year have produced a remarkable 10 winners at 23.3%. Nobody else If you’d backed them all to win, you’d be sitting on a profit of 24.5 points....

  • No secret....

I don’t think I’m revealing any great secret there....

I’m probably doing no more than joining a few dots and providing actual figures that confirm what people already kind of know – probably sub-consciously....

The market is certainly onto De Sousa. There’s no doubt that.

Seven of his ten winners were sent off either favourite or second-favourite. And none of his winners were sent off at SPs bigger than 10s....

And the training ranks recognize that De Sousa is a go-to man when you’ve got a live one for one of the valuable show-piece handicaps. The rider certainly isn’t short of options or offers....

His 43 rides have been provided by a total of 26 different trainers....

And he’s ridden at least one winner for 7 of those – David Elsworth (2/4); Ian Williams (1/2); Jim Goldie (1/1); Mark Johnston (3/9); Michael Appleby (1/2); Neil King (1/1) and Simon Crisford (1/3).

  • None get close....

Andrea Atzeni, Jim Crowley and Adam Kirby – with respective records of 5/37, 4/28 and 4/25 – are the riders with the next best records....

Fran Berry is interesting too with 3 wins from his 20 qualifying rides....

But none gets close to the haul registered by De Sousa....

Right now, it’s fair to say – on this season’s evidence – that De Sousa is the man getting most out of top-level handicappers....

That might be a case of him being always on the best horse. It might be case of him being a real advantage to a horse and squeezing out better performances than other riders might manage....

We can’t know for sure. But one thing we can conclude is that De Sousa rides in the big handicaps at York next week are well worth close and detailed examination....

  • The last word….

That’s all from me for today.

I’ll be back with tomorrow with my contrarian take on the weekend action.

Until then. Stay tuned.

Nick Pullen

Against the Crowd