17th August 2018
We are up at Ripon for tomorrow’s race – the William Hill Silver Trophy Handicap (2.05) – the consolation races for horses not rated high enough to get into the Great St Wilfrid which is run a little later the afternoon’s card….
It’s a C2 event for horses aged 3yo+ over the straight 6f trip. A field of 15 runners heads to post on ground currently described as good.
There is a little rain forecast over Ripon later this afternoon. Whether it falls or not is anybody’s guess. It wouldn’t be the first time this summer that forecast rain has failed to materialize….
Scott Dixon’s Dark Shot heads the weight on his mark of 87. At the other end of the scale, Paul Midgely’s Rantan is rated 70 and carries 8-7….
Michael Easterby’s Quick Look and Paul Midgely’s Hee Haw are the two last-time-out winners in the field. The former is up 5lbs and the latter is up 4lbs….
We’ll get to my selections for tomorrow’s race in a moment….
First a quick word on what you missed on my paid ATC service this week….
This week on ATC….
On Monday I took issue with tipping services that refer to bets as ‘investments’. Bets and investments are two very different things….
On Tuesday I highlighted a KISS angle (Keep-It-Simple-Stupid) for the handicaps at next week’s Ebor meeting at York….
And on Wednesday I highlighted a young rider who might just be off-the-radar for those handicap races….
Yesterday we looked at another dataset and drew attention to a rider currently proving himself of most advantage to horses in the top handicaps – wherever they happen to be run….
You can view this material and a whole load of additional angles, insights and observations in the archive on the ATC website when you take a 14-day FREE trial of the ATC service. Do that right here....
Back to tomorrow’s target race and the pick of the prices….
We don’t make a habit of playing at the shorter prices – but occasionally pragmatism wins out….
And in race where nothing appeals very much at the bigger prices, Paul Midgley’s HEE HAW is taken to back up his recent win at Haydock at this afternoon 7s and 13/2….
First-time cheekpieces did the business at the Lancashire track and if that headgear can work the same magic tomorrow then the 4yo is weighted to go in again despite being raised 4lbs for that last win….
That rise leaves him contesting tomorrow afternoon’s race off a mark of 75. And that’s still 4lbs lower than the mark he won off over tomorrow’s course and distance last year….
Not many of these yards are going as well as the Midgley operation right now. And quite a few of the opposition are well out of form….
A single-figure price isn’t the norm for us. But all things taken together, Hee Haw is a fair-enough price in the context of tomorrow’s contest.
The Pick of the Prices....
To recap on where my contrarian money will be going tomorrow afternoon….
In the William Hill Silver Trophy Handicap (2.05 @ Ripon).
That is my take on where the value lies – but you will no doubt have your own ideas and that’s exactly as it should be.
Tomorrow afternoon is Ripon’s annual day in the spotlight – with the Great St Wilfrid headlining the show….
A field of 20-runners goes to post for the showpiece event – and it’s a hot little race for valuer-seeking punters….
I’m doing my usual trick and going two-against-the-field – siding with a pair of horses trading at fair prices in today’s early-bird market….
You can get immediate access to these extra bets on the website when you take a FREE 14-day test drive of my Against the Crowd service….
That’s all from me this week.
Enjoy your weekend.