Friday, 31st August 2018
It is the proper valuable big-field handicaps that do it for me from a betting perspective....
Britain has little or nothing of that sort of fare to offer tomorrow....
Instead, my eye is drawn across the Irish Sea to the Curragh and the Irish Cambridgeshire at 4.00.
A big-field of 22 runners will emerge from the stalls and go it hammer and tongues up the straight mile....
These races can look like a lottery on paper. And that’s why so many punters avoid such contests. Calling the winner can make knitting fog seem easy by comparison....
But I like these kinds of races precisely because of the difficulties they present....
If they are difficult for us, they are difficult too for the bookmakers and the wider market we are betting against....
And in that kind of environment, pricing mistakes occur with great frequency. And that’s the very thing I set out to capitalize on....
Michael Appleby’s GREATEST JOURNEY is the one I want to be with at this afternoon’s 20s with Boylesports & Sky Bet....
He’s only had 4 runs on turf to date and has been doing all his work on the all-weather this term – something which has helped preserve a turf mark of 95 – and he looks like one that has been laid out for a serious crack at this contest....
He ran a nice trail at Chelmsford last time out – flashing up the straight and making up plenty of ground late on.
A few yards past the post he was in front. It was an encouraging effort of a 5-month break and I would expect him to come on for it terms of match sharpness....
He’ll appreciate the give underfoot at the Curragh and I see him running a big race for connections and I’ll be backing him each-way....
The one race I like in Britain tomorrow is the 2.25 at Sandown – the Best Odds Guaranteed At 188Bet Handicap over 10f – where Mark Johnston’s DREAM TODAY is nicely priced at a general 12s....
He ran a good race at York last time out over a mile. He was 4th of the 17th runners and beaten 4.25 lengths....
He was never quite getting to the leaders that afternoon, but he stuck on very nicely at the end and looks like a horse with more to deliver....
He’s got an entry for October’s Cambridgeshire at Newmarket. Connections have clearly been thinking about a trip beyond the mile and tomorrow he steps up to the 10f trip for the first time....
He looks like the second-string for Johnston with Oisin Murphy booked to ride. But his trainer makes a habit of winning with second and third-string runners – so I’m not going to let that put me off....
The way he finished off at York suggests he’s well worth a go over the extra two-furlongs. And it could be the making of him.
He was gelded in July and his two effort since then have been his best yet. The extra yardage can see him to better effect still and a double-figure price is more than acceptable....
The Contrarian Bet Box….To recap on where my contrarian money will be going tomorrow afternoon…. In the Irish Cambridgeshire (4.00 @ Curragh)
In the Best Odds Guaranteed At 188Bet Handicap (2.25 @ Sandown)
That is my take on where the value lies – but you will no doubt have your own ideas and that’s exactly as it should be. |
That’s all from me for today.
Win, lose or draw – enjoy the racing....
No ATC Extra today. I’ll be back in your inbox next week....
Until then. Stay tuned.
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